Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xv
INTRODUCTION 1
MOTIVATION 1
Generate Social Dynamics 2
A Core Target 2
THE MODEL COMPONENTS 5
Model Overview 6
Skeletal Equation 8
Specific Components 9
ORGANIZATION 10
Part I: Mathematical Model 10
Part II: Agent-Based Model 11
Part III: Extensions 13
Replicability and Research Resources on the Princeton University Press Website 16
Part IV: Future Research and Conclusions 17
PART 1. MATHEMATICAL MODEL 19
I.1. THE PASSIONS: FEAR CONDITIONING 19
Fear Circuitry and the Perils of Fitness 20
Nomenclature of Conditioning 29
The Rescorla-Wagner Model 33
Social Examples 37
Fear Extinction 41
I.2. REASON: THE COGNITIVE COMPONENT 46
I.3. THE SOCIAL COMPONENT 51
Simple Version of the Core Target 55
Examples of Fear Contagion 57
Mechanisms of Fear Contagion 59
Conformist Empirical Estimates 63
Generalizing Rescorla-Wagner 67
The Central Case 69
Tolstoy: The First Agent Modeler 71
A Mathematical Aside on Social Norms as Vector Fields 74
Extinction of Majorities 78
I.4. INTERIM CONCLUSIONS 80
PART II. AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL MODEL 81
Affective Component 84
"Rational" Component 85
Social Component 88
Action 89
Pseudocode 89
II.1. COMPUTATIONAL PARABLES 90
Parable 1: The Slaughter of Innocents through Dispositional Contagion 90
Parable 2: Agent_Zero Initiates: Leadership as Susceptibility to Dispositional Contagion 94
Run 3. Information Cuts Both Ways 96
Run 4. A Day in the Life of Agent_Zero: How Affect and Probability Can Change on Different Time Scales 98
Run 5. Lesion Studies 102
PART III. EXTENSIONS 107
III.1. ENDOGENOUS DESTRUCTIVE RADIUS 107
III.2. AGE AND IMPULSE CONTROL 109
III.3. FIGHT VS. FLIGHT 110
Case 1: Fight 111
Case 2: Flight 112
Capital Flight 114
III.4. REPLICATING THE Latané-DARLEY EXPERIMENT 114
Threshold Imputation 115
The Dialogue 118
III.5. MEMORY 118
III.6. COUPLINGS: ENTANGLEMENT OF PASSION AND REASON 122
Mathematical Treatment 124
III.7.ENDOGENOUS DYNAMICS OF CONNECTION STRENGTH 128
Affective Homophily 128
General Setup 130
Agent-Based Model: Nonequlibrium Dynamics 135
III.8. GROWING THE 2011 ARAB SPRING 138
III.9. JURY PROCESSES 143
Phase 1. Public Phase 143
Phase 2. Courtroom Trial Phase 145
Phase 3. Jury Phase 147
III.10. EMERGENT DYNAMICS OF NETWORK STRUCTURE 152
Network Structure Dynamics as a Poincaré Map 153
Relation to Literature 159
III.11. MULTIPLE SOCIAL LEVELS 160
Agent_Zero as Witness to History 161
III.12. THE 18TH BRUMAIRE OF AGENT_ZERO 165
III.13. INTRODUCTION OF PRICES AND SEASONAL ECONOMIC CYCLES 168
Prices 168
A Christmas Story 173
III.14. SPIRALS OF MUTUAL ESCALATION 176
PART IV. FUTURE RESEARCH AND CONCLUSION 181
IV.1. FUTURE RESEARCH 181
IV.2. CONCLUSION 187
Civil Violence 187
Economics 188
Health Behavior 189
Psychology 190
Jury Dynamics 191
The Formation and Dynamics of Networks 191
Mutual Escalation Dynamics 192
Birth and Intergenerational Transmission 192
IV.3. TOWARD NEW GENERATIVE FOUNDATIONS 192
Appendix I. Threshold Imputation Bounds 195
Appendix II. Mathematica Code 197
Appendix III. Agent_Zero NetLogo Source Code 213
Appendix IV. Parameter Settings for Model Runs 221
References 227
Index 243
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