Irrational Exuberance 在线电子书 图书标签: 金融 经济 英文原版 投资 行为经济学 Shiller Economics 次贷危机
发表于2025-03-13
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席勒教授在2014年第三版中提出了”新时代繁荣”,是继2001年千禧繁荣,2007年次贷繁荣后,由全球主要央行共同参与并推动的一次全球性资产泡沫,席勒教授对此次非理性繁荣提出了警告。然而,这一次并没有像之前版本发布后就出现崩盘,自2014年以后资产价格继续攀升,至今2019年并没有出现崩盘迹象。
评分读第二版的时候还完全没有实际操作的经验。带着五年的实操从头读了一遍席勒的经典。第三版加入了席勒13年诺奖课程,并对数据进行了更新,无结论影响。长期利率往往是对既往长期通涨的反应,但是长期利率对未来的长期通胀却几乎没有预测效力,而长期通胀才是对于企业或个人最重要的投资研判标准。席勒的老师金登伯格提出,繁荣期的被骗需求是一定的,因为随着繁荣期财富的积累,个人变得贪婪,而骗人者上前来满足这种被骗的需求。人类区别其他生物之处在能有效传递信息,且自然选择决定这种信息传递的都是对个体关键的信息,比如哪里能赚钱。投机能够带来的回报通过口口相传的方式迅速扩散,再通过受传播者不断买入资产推升价格形成自我正向反馈,形成席勒所谓的自然发生的庞氏陷阱。只需要扩散率大于遗忘率,就能很快传播到整个社会网络中。
评分Shiller拿了诺奖才读似乎有点迟钝。很多自说自话,很多不太严谨。但是New Era Story-> rational feedback loop -> herd behavior的泡沫逻辑还是挺有趣的。
评分席勒教授在2014年第三版中提出了”新时代繁荣”,是继2001年千禧繁荣,2007年次贷繁荣后,由全球主要央行共同参与并推动的一次全球性资产泡沫,席勒教授对此次非理性繁荣提出了警告。然而,这一次并没有像之前版本发布后就出现崩盘,自2014年以后资产价格继续攀升,至今2019年并没有出现崩盘迹象。
评分席勒教授在2014年第三版中提出了”新时代繁荣”,是继2001年千禧繁荣,2007年次贷繁荣后,由全球主要央行共同参与并推动的一次全球性资产泡沫,席勒教授对此次非理性繁荣提出了警告。然而,这一次并没有像之前版本发布后就出现崩盘,自2014年以后资产价格继续攀升,至今2019年并没有出现崩盘迹象。
Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born Detroit, Michigan,March 29, 1946) is an American economist, academic, and best-selling author. He currently serves as the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was Vice President of the American Economic Association in 2005, and President of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006-2007. He is also the co-founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.
In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, now cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices in the United States, and rising housing prices in many countries, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever.
But Irrational Exuberance is about something far more important than the current situation in any given market because the book explains the forces that move all markets up and down. It shows how investor euphoria can drive asset prices up to dizzying and unsustainable heights, and how, at other times, investor discouragement can push prices down to very low levels.
Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets--and famously predicted their crashes. This new edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. This edition also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which puts the book in broader context.
In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity--and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read it.
For more information, including new developments and regular data updates, please go to www.irrationalexuberance.com
下面是我曾经写的book report,感兴趣的朋友可以拿此书来看。 我简单说说这书, 作者对于美国房产经济做了一番研究,此书有详细的对于次贷以前类似房产经纪引发的经济问题的研究。很多facts.从此你看书美国如何房地产经济的发展轨迹。 此书对于权威毫不吝啬的批评,认为次贷一...
评分这本书看下来感觉有点浪费时间,主要是不好看,相当枯燥,繁复罗列数据、例证、问卷,说是严谨也罢,可是摆了一堆事实,得出的大多数观点结论都是否定性的,肯定性的结论却很少。完全可以直接翻到每个章节的结尾,直接看结论。记录下比较有印象的地方: 前两章主要是历史回顾,...
评分我2006年看的, 越看胆子越大, 68追的600150, 190出的. 不过要是没看过, 我不会在过去2年坚决不买房,不贷款, 不会那么坚决的在2008年初把70%的仓位买了2年国债,
评分 评分席勒(Robert J.Shiller)教授在其在本人授课的耶鲁公开课《经济市场》上推荐的辅助教材之一。这本书因其“成功的预测了2000年和2007年两次金融及房产市场泡沫崩溃“而出名,当然事实上这本书只是幸运的在2000年金融泡沫破灭前刚好发表,显然整个经济泡沫涌起的90年代不断会有...
Irrational Exuberance 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025