The Great Depression Ahead

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出版者:Free Press
作者:Harry S. Dent
出品人:
页数:387
译者:
出版时间:2009-12
价格:USD 16.00
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9781416588993
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 经济危机
  • 大萧条
  • 金融
  • 投资
  • 经济学
  • 历史
  • 预测
  • 衰退
  • 市场分析
  • 个人理财
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具体描述

The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously. Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead , he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike. He predicts the following: • The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm." • Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200. • The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013. • Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks. • Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010. • A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020. • The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036. Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!

这本书以历史背景为基础,深入探讨了经济衰退时期所面临的挑战与机遇。作者通过详细的资料和扎实的研究,描绘出一幅宏大的时代图景,使读者能够清晰地理解大萧条的起因、发展过程及其对全球社会经济的深远影响。在书中,历史事件被系统地梳理,每一个细节都经过严谨的考察与分析。 书籍着重描述了1929年的股市崩盘,以及随之而来的失业潮、家庭破产和资源短缺等现象。通过大量的图表和文字描写,读者能够全面掌握这一历史阶段的复杂性和严峻性。作者还详细分析了各国政府及国际组织在面对危机时所采取的政策措施,从财政、货币和贸易等多个维度,探讨出应对经济困境的多种途径与局限。 书中不仅关注过去事件,还通过历史的视角引导读者思考当今社会是否能借鉴这些经验,以期在未来的经济环境中更好地预防和管理类似危机。作者结合学术研究与真实案例,展现了对这一复杂时期的深刻理解,力求提供一种全方位、多维度的历史解读。 此外,书籍还涉及到当时社会各界的反应,揭示了不同群体在危机中的行为与选择。人们如何面对失业和贫困,家庭是否能共同应对,这些都是探讨的重要内容。作者通过对口述史资料、政府文件和媒体报道的综合分析,为读者呈现了一幅丰富多彩、细腻描绘的画面。 书中还特别强调了经济衰退带来的长期影响,例如产业结构调整、技术创新推动以及社会意识的转变。这些内容不仅帮助读者理解当时的局面,还为未来经济政策提供了宝贵的参考。作者通过对不同国家和地区发展的对比,分析了经济危机的普遍性与地域差异,从而全面展示了这段历史的复杂性。 总体而言,这本书以细致入微、内容丰富的方式,为读者呈现了一部值得阅读的历史著作。它不仅记录了一个时代的困境,更为我们理解人类应对挑战的智慧提供了深刻启示。在探讨现代经济问题时,读者可以从中汲取经验,更加科学地制定解决方案。因此,这本书无疑是一部不可错过的重要历史读物。

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