The book provides insights into the potential role of private equity and venture in the post-economic crisis world. It looks at the industry from a number of perspectives: geographically, including text on Asia and the Middle East; and by type of investor, principally, private equity, venture capital, institutional investors, and the banks. It is not a textbook, casebook, or 'how-to' book, but rather a well-reported look at the industry today and an insightful commentary on where it's headed tomorrow. The author interviewed over 75 leading GPs, LPs, SWFs, and economists in the private equity, venture, and financial industries. A new and untested US political administration, multiple conflicts, and a rapidly changing economic landscape provide the backdrop. If tomorrow will be different than today, then the way business has been done in the past should be reexamined in a new light. Despite the pervasive resort to government bailouts, the answer may lie in an economic model that is based on smaller entities, accountability, direct links between ownership and management, and a corporate structure that is much less leveraged and broader in scope. As a result, private equity and venture could well emerge at the top of the financial league and as a weathervane for the underlying economy. There are a number of reasons for this proposition. For starters, private equity and venture may well be the last man standing. They also have a robust funding structure: long term deposits-investments-from their limited partners. They are flexible in their approach to investing opportunities. And while their portfolio companies are suffering from the same downturn afflicting the rest of the economy, the owners control both the balance sheet and the business. And that leads to deeper reasons which go to the nature of private equity: accountability and the alignment of interests. This argument also suggests a new 'corporate norm', whose implications for corporate governance are as yet, untested. The book includes commentary from leading pension funds and endowments, which are frequently omitted from industry books. It also looks at private equity and venture across the world. The US and Europe will offer mostly distress and restructuring opportunities. Asia will continue to expand, while the Middle East will fund basic infrastructure. Unlike the US and Europe, their economies will grow and require investment. No one knows whether today's general partners can reshape the financial markets and influence their underlying economies. How the industry is organized, funded, and invests will certainly change. But for the firms that survive the next 1-2 years, that possibility certainly exists. The book analyzes how and why this is the case for private equity and venture capital, while suggesting how the behavior of limited partners and banks will be different as well.
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这本书在方法论上的选择,让我感到非常困惑,甚至有些许的冒犯。它似乎完全基于一种“自上而下”的、自诩高明的视角来审视整个行业,完全忽视了自下而上的、由技术驱动的创新浪潮。作者的论述核心似乎建立在“现有金融巨头会逐步吸收新技术”的预设之上,这暴露了一种对颠覆性创新的无知或者傲慢。哪里有对“长尾市场”和“普惠金融”在数字鸿沟下如何实现的真正探讨?哪里有关于新兴市场金融科技创业公司如何绕过传统壁垒的案例分析?我的期待是,能读到一些关于“小而美”的、高度聚焦的金融解决方案如何挑战巨头的模式,而不是又一次听闻大型银行的数字化转型战略。书中对“生态系统”的描绘,也仅限于传统银行、保险和资产管理公司之间的协同,对于开放银行(Open Banking)的深层含义——即数据所有权和互操作性的革命——只是停留在表层,未能触及到权力结构的转移。这种保守的视角,使得整本书的论断都显得软弱无力,仿佛作者害怕触碰那些真正可能引起行业地震的敏感话题。它提供的是一本“如何不被淘汰”的指南,而非“如何引领未来”的蓝图。
评分如果说有一点是这本书成功做到的,那就是将“变革”这个词定义得极其安全和可控。对于那些希望通过阅读这本书来寻求一个关于金融技术如何彻底重塑经济激励机制的答案的读者来说,这本书无疑是令人失望的。我本寄希望于能够深入理解代币经济学(Tokenomics)的复杂性,以及智能合约如何从根本上改变信贷和担保的本质。书中提到“数字化转型”,但这个词在这里被稀释成了仅仅是将合同扫描成PDF并上传到云端服务器。这种对“数字”的理解停留在工具层面,而非范式转移的层面。我对那些探讨区块链技术在供应链金融中实现不可篡改的信用记录的潜力的部分尤为期待,因为这直接关系到全球贸易的效率和透明度。然而,这本书对这类创新应用几乎没有涉及,反而花了大量篇幅去分析如何优化银行的内部审计流程,这在信息爆炸的今天,显得如此不合时宜。它仿佛是一部关于如何精雕细琢马车的说明书,而我们需要的,是如何建造一架飞机的操作手册。
评分这本书,坦率地说,完全没有触及我对金融未来图景的任何想象。我原本期待能在这本书中看到一些关于去中心化金融(DeFi)的深度剖析,或许是对量子计算在风险模型建立中的潜在应用有所探讨,甚至是对全球央行数字货币(CBDC)的长期宏观经济影响进行一次批判性的审视。然而,当我翻开目录,看到的却是对传统银行体系内部流程优化的冗长描述,以及对现有监管框架的机械性罗列。这种对“未来”的定义显得如此狭隘和保守,仿佛作者从未走出过二十世纪九十年代的华尔街。例如,书中花了大量的篇幅去讲解如何优化SWIFT系统的报文格式,这对于一个关注金融科技革命前沿的读者来说,无异于在谈论蒸汽机的效率提升,而不是喷气式飞机的燃料革命。更令人失望的是,关于人工智能在资产管理中的角色,书中仅限于提及“机器学习算法可以辅助决策”,这种蜻蜓点水式的介绍,缺乏对算法偏见、黑箱问题以及新型金融工具设计(如自适应智能合约)的任何深入挖掘。整本书读下来,最大的感受是“安全”和“平庸”,它提供的是一份关于如何让旧系统运行得更平顺的指南,而非指引我们航向新大陆的罗盘。我需要的,是颠覆性的思维,而不是对既有秩序的温和维护。
评分这本书的语言和结构给我造成了一种强烈的“时滞感”。仿佛作者是基于五年前收集的行业数据和已经过时的行业趋势报告来撰写此书的。在讨论“数据安全”时,全篇充斥着对传统防火墙和入侵检测系统的介绍,这在零信任架构(Zero Trust Architecture)和后量子加密时代,已经显得捉襟见肘。我期待的是关于分布式身份验证(DID)如何终结密码依赖,以及联邦学习(Federated Learning)如何在保护隐私的同时提升集体预测能力的讨论。作者似乎对这些正在快速成熟的前沿技术知之甚少,或者故意选择了回避。阅读过程中,我不断地在脑中将书中的观点与我所了解的最新技术突破进行对比,结果是每一次对比都加深了我的落差感。这本书的价值,也许仅限于对传统金融体系的初学者提供一个非常基础的、温和的入门介绍。但对于任何一个身处变革前沿、渴望掌握未来脉搏的专业人士来说,它提供的只是一个温暖却空洞的拥抱,没有实质性的、能指导行动的洞察力。
评分阅读体验堪称一次漫长而低效的旅程,仿佛被困在一家老派的、灯光昏暗的图书馆里,周围都是被灰尘覆盖的、过时的行业报告。这本书的叙事节奏极其拖沓,作者似乎对任何一个细枝末节都要进行百科全书式的详尽阐述,结果就是核心观点被淹没在大量的背景信息和重复的论证之中。举个例子,在讨论“客户体验”这个概念时,作者用了整整三章来回顾2008年金融危机后消费者信心重建的历史演变,这固然有其学术价值,但对于追求高效信息摄取的现代读者而言,简直是折磨。我本希望看到的是关于生物识别技术如何重塑身份验证、或者沉浸式技术(如元宇宙)如何创造新的交易场所的尖锐见解。这本书对此避而不谈,反而执着于对“纸质文件审批流程的电子化改造”的精细描述,这种关注点与时代错位得太厉害了。文字风格也显得过于学术化和僵硬,充满了冗余的从句和晦涩的术语堆砌,让人很难建立起与作者之间的情感连接或思维共鸣。读完之后,我不仅没有感到知识上的满足,反而有一种被无用信息过度灌输后的疲惫感,犹如看完了一部时长过长的纪录片,却发现它只是在重新播放我们早已知道的事实。
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