Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024

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Cooke, Roger M. 作者

譯者

1991-6 出版日期

336 頁數

$ 186.44 價格

叢書系列

9780195064650 圖書編碼

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Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書 epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 下載 2024

Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書 epub 下載 pdf 下載 mobi 下載 txt 下載 2024

Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024

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Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 在線電子書下載

Experts in Uncertainty 在線電子書圖書描述

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

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