Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball.
In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction.
We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.
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又一本故事書...要是後半本有個配套習題集就好瞭
评分廢話舉例瞭一本書，隻有一個point，即，prediction並不可能百分百準確，接受它，並try&error。
评分又一本故事書...要是後半本有個配套習題集就好瞭
评分廢話舉例瞭一本書，隻有一個point，即，prediction並不可能百分百準確，接受它，並try&error。
评分how to drown in three feet of water
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