Currency Mismatching in Emerging Economies pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

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出版者:Peterson Institute for International Economics

作者:Morris Goldstein

出品人:

页数:100

译者:

出版时间:2003-10-31

价格:GBP 22.50

装帧:Paperback

isbn号码:9780881323603

丛书系列:

图书标签:

• 新兴市场
• 货币错配
• 金融风险
• 汇率风险
• 宏观经济
• 国际金融
• 发展经济学
• 资本流动
• 金融稳定
• 货币政策

Global Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses A Comprehensive Analysis of the Dynamics Shaping International Commerce This volume offers an exhaustive exploration of the structural forces, cyclical fluctuations, and intricate policy challenges associated with significant imbalances in global trade flows. Moving beyond conventional narratives, the book delves into the complex interplay between national economic policies, technological diffusion, and the evolving architecture of global finance that collectively generate and sustain persistent trade deficits and surpluses across nations. The core of this analysis is structured around three interlocking themes: the fundamental drivers of trade imbalances, the domestic and international ramifications of these asymmetries, and the spectrum of potential policy tools available to policymakers seeking greater equilibrium. Part I: Deconstructing the Drivers of Asymmetry This section meticulously dissects the primary determinants contributing to sustained trade imbalances, arguing that they are far more nuanced than simple issues of domestic consumption versus saving rates. Chapter 1: The Role of Global Savings and Investment Patterns This chapter undertakes a detailed examination of the "Global Savings Glut" hypothesis, tracing its origins to demographic shifts in industrialized nations and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in rapidly developing economies, particularly those reliant on commodity exports or export-led growth models. It utilizes macroeconomic data spanning the last three decades to illustrate how excess global savings seek high-yield investment opportunities, often flowing disproportionately into specific asset markets, thereby influencing exchange rates and capital accounts in destination countries. The analysis contrasts the structural savings decisions made by pension systems and sovereign wealth funds with short-term portfolio investment volatility, demonstrating how these different pools of capital exert distinct pressures on trade balances. Chapter 2: Exchange Rate Regimes and Policy Interventions The volume dedicates significant attention to the mechanics of exchange rate management in a world characterized by floating, pegged, and managed-float systems. It offers a comparative study of the effectiveness and unintended consequences of currency undervaluation policies employed by nations aiming to secure an external competitive advantage. Using econometric modeling, the book assesses the elasticity of trade volumes to currency movements under varying conditions of global demand. Crucially, it scrutinizes the recent trend of nations attempting to manage their real effective exchange rates through a combination of monetary policy normalization, capital flow restrictions (macroprudential tools), and direct foreign exchange market intervention. The chapter concludes by analyzing the inherent difficulties in achieving policy independence when a nation is deeply integrated into global financial markets. Chapter 3: Sectoral Shifts, Technology, and Supply Chain Fragmentation Moving beyond aggregate macroeconomic variables, this part investigates the microeconomic foundations of trade imbalances rooted in technological specialization. It explores how global value chains (GVCs) are structured—who captures the value-added at each stage of production. The book presents empirical evidence demonstrating that trade statistics, which measure gross trade flows, often obscure the actual domestic content of imports and exports. Particular focus is placed on the impact of digitalization and automation on the location of manufacturing activities. It challenges the notion that trade deficits are solely a symptom of "offshoring," instead framing them as an indicator of differential national technological comparative advantage in high-value processing activities versus raw material extraction or final assembly. Part II: Consequences and Spillover Effects Understanding the consequences of persistent imbalances requires analyzing both the internal economic strains placed upon deficit and surplus countries, and the systemic risks they introduce to the international financial system. Chapter 4: Domestic Adjustments in Deficit Nations: Debt, Deflation, and Investment This chapter analyzes the internal economic adjustments necessitated by continuous external deficits. For deficit nations, the persistent requirement to finance the gap leads to an accumulation of external liabilities, whether in the form of government debt or private sector borrowing. The analysis explores the trade-off between leveraging foreign capital for productive domestic investment (infrastructure, R&D) versus funding consumption booms. Furthermore, it examines the deflationary pressures exerted by sustained, low-cost imports on domestic wage growth and the erosion of traditional industrial bases, leading to political polarization surrounding globalization. Chapter 5: The Risks Imposed by Surplus Accumulation For countries running persistent surpluses, the accumulation of vast foreign assets (often denominated in reserve currencies) presents a different set of challenges. This chapter investigates the potential for "financial repression," where domestic interest rates are kept artificially low to minimize the cost of servicing external debt or to maintain export competitiveness. It scrutinizes the "balance sheet risks" associated with holding large, undiversified portfolios of foreign assets, particularly concerning sudden stops in capital flows or shifts in the risk perception of the issuer countries. The political economy of hoarding international reserves is also analyzed, focusing on how these reserves can grant significant, albeit often latent, geopolitical leverage. Chapter 6: Systemic Financial Vulnerability and Global Contagion The final chapter in Part II addresses the systemic dimension. Trade imbalances are intrinsically linked to the plumbing of the international financial system. This chapter models how cross-border lending driven by trade surpluses can create asset bubbles in recipient nations (e.g., real estate or sovereign bonds). It uses historical case studies, such as the Asian Financial Crisis, to illustrate how sudden reversals in the flow of capital—driven by changes in sentiment regarding the sustainability of a nation's external position—can rapidly transmit shocks across financial markets, leading to global deleveraging cycles. Part III: Policy Pathways Towards Rebalancing The concluding section moves from diagnosis to prescription, evaluating a comprehensive toolkit of fiscal, monetary, and structural policies designed to foster a more balanced global economic landscape. Chapter 7: Fiscal Policy as a Tool for Internal and External Adjustment This chapter argues that domestic fiscal policy is arguably the most powerful, yet underutilized, instrument for correcting trade imbalances. It analyzes how strategic shifts in government spending—away from consumption subsidies and towards public investment—can simultaneously raise domestic demand sustainably (reducing the need for financing deficits) and enhance long-term productive capacity. The analysis contrasts austerity measures, which often exacerbate external deficits by suppressing aggregate demand, with targeted expansionary policies designed to improve national saving rates relative to investment needs. Chapter 8: Monetary Policy Coordination and Capital Flow Management The book investigates the difficult coordination challenges inherent in global economic governance. It examines proposals for enhanced international monetary cooperation, particularly concerning reserve asset diversification and the potential role of multilateral institutions in facilitating orderly adjustments. Furthermore, it provides a rigorous framework for evaluating the efficacy of prudential capital flow management techniques—such as dynamic reserve requirements, taxes on short-term inflows, or targeted lending restrictions—as tools to insulate domestic economies from destabilizing surges in foreign capital associated with large trade surpluses. Chapter 9: Structural Reforms for Long-Term Competitiveness The final chapter focuses on deep structural changes required to align domestic demand and supply patterns with sustainable external accounts. For surplus countries, this involves implementing reforms aimed at boosting domestic household consumption through improved social safety nets, labor market flexibility, and the strengthening of domestic financial intermediation. For deficit countries, the focus shifts to enhancing productivity across lagging sectors, investing in human capital, and streamlining regulatory frameworks to ensure that imported capital is channeled into areas yielding high long-term returns rather than speculative ventures. The volume concludes with a forward-looking assessment of the necessity for multilateral agreement on rules governing national saving and investment targets to foster a more robust and equitable global trading system.

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