Prefeface and Acknowledgements........................................................................... V
List of Contributing Authors................................................................................... IX
Section I Introduction to Uncertainty and Surprise .............................................. 1
1 Uncertainty and Surprise: An Introduction........................................................... 3
2 Surprises in a Half Century .................................................................................. 13
Section II Central Themes on Uncertainty and Surprise ................................... 17
3 Complexity, Uncertainty and Surprise: An Integrated View ............................ 19
4 The Evolutionary Complexity of Social Economic Systems:
The Inevitability of Uncertainty and Surprise..................................................... 31
5 Managing the Unexpected:
Complexity as Distributed Sensemaking ............................................................ 51
Section III Differing Views of Uncertainty and Surprise....................................... 67
Section IIIA Fundamental Unknowability in Science and Social Science ............ 69
6 Fundamental “Uncertainty” in Science................................................................ 71
7 The Complementary Nature of Coordination Dynamics:
Toward a Science of the In-Between.................................................................. 77
8 The Tyranny of Many Dimensionless Constants:
A Constraint on Knowability............................................................................... 87
Section IIIB Organizational Issues of Uncertainty................................................. 93
9 A View from the Inside:
The Task of Managing Uncertainty and Surprise ............................................... 95
10 An Introduction to the Mathematics and Meaning of Chaos ............................ 99
Section IIIC Fundamental Uncertainty and the Delivery of Health Care............ 107
11 The Social Construction of Uncertainty in Healthcare Delivery .................... 109
12 Primary Care Practice: Uncertainty and Surprise............................................ 123
13 Medical Errors and Microsystems:
The Best Things Cannot be Told ...................................................................... 131
14 Organization and Leadership in Hospitals....................................................... 145
Section IIID Fundamental Uncertainty in Business and
Business Decision Making ................................................................ 151
15 Fundamental Uncertainty in Business: Real Options...................................... 153
16 Transforming Your Regional Economy through Uncertainty and Surprise:
Learning from Complexity Science, Network Theory and the Field ............... 165
17 Uncertainty and Certainty ................................................................................ 177
Section IV Conversations on Uncertainty and Surprise....................................... 181
18 Uncertainty and Surprise: Ideas from the Open Discussion ........................... 183
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