The black swan 在线电子书 图书标签: 统计学 投资 Finance 金融 思想 心理学 金融学 英文原版
发表于2024-06-26
The black swan 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024
这本书中心思想就是我们现在学的都是扯淡的
评分这本书中心思想就是我们现在学的都是扯淡的
评分his view is unique,
评分为什么标题括号里是“TR”?
评分Don't ask why a Black Swan appeared. Find what you can get from this black swan.
纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb),一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家,又是经验主义者,又是理智的数理证券交易员,目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》(Fooled by Randomness)以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
1、几乎社会生活中的一切都是由极少发生但是影响重大的剧变和飞越产生的。 2、你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义,因为许多黑天鹅事件正是不可预知的情况下发生和加剧的。 3、如何应对黑天鹅: ①不要预测:能够预测出来的意外就不是意外,对于不可预测的事情做出错误的预测...
评分塔勒布喜欢说一个故事,关于黑天鹅的故事。17世纪的欧洲人们相信所有的天鹅都是白色的,这是牢不可破的信念。直到澳大利亚发现了黑天鹅,视野才重新打开。 黑天鹅的出现证明了我们的认知多么局限,黑天鹅的存在寓于着不可预测的重大事件,它在意料之外却又改变一切。 黑天...
评分我们预测30年后的社会保障赤字和石油价格,而没有认识到我们连明年夏天的情况都预测不了,我们在政治经济大事上的累积预测错误是如此巨大,以至于我每次看到这些记录时,都不得不掐一下自己以确定不是在做梦。令人吃惊的不是预测错误之大,而是我们对其毫无意识。在致命性冲突...
评分喝了一口手边的水,我反复告诫以自己: 要对自己诚实,有时候直言不讳一点不见得时间坏事。 《黑天鹅》的观点OK么? 我相信它的观点,我觉得作者的思路也很清晰, 低概率的事件不代表就是不会发生的事情, 所以,我们要相信奇迹。 因为,你跟我都是奇迹的代表。 生命本身就是...
评分1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...
The black swan 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024