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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024

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Philip E. Tetlock 作者

Princeton University Press

譯者

1996-8-19 出版日期

344 頁數

USD 55.00 價格

Paperback

叢書系列

9780691027913 圖書編碼

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書圖書標籤: 方法論國際關係 Methodology 政治學社會科學政治國際政治 Politics

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發表於2024-12-23

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書 epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 下載 2024

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書 epub 下載 pdf 下載 mobi 下載 txt 下載 2024

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024

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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 在線電子書下載

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在線電子書圖書描述

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume - including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast - find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

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