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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

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Philip E. Tetlock 作者
Princeton University Press
译者
1996-8-19 出版日期
344 页数
USD 55.00 价格
Paperback
丛书系列
9780691027913 图书编码

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在线电子书 图书标签: 方法论  国际关系  Methodology  政治学  社会科学  政治  国际政治  Politics   


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Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2024

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2024

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024



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Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume - including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast - find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

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