The Wisdom of Crowds 在线电子书 图书标签:
发表于2024-11-10
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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。
评分有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。
评分有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。
评分有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。
评分有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。
詹姆斯•索罗维基(James Surowiecki)
《纽约客》杂志特约撰稿人。他的文章见诸很多出版物,包括《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》《艺术论坛报》《连线》杂志和《候选人名单》杂志。索罗维基最初在《纽约客》杂志的“金融专版”阐述了群体智慧的思想,回答了美国社会长期以来对群体智慧和团队决策能力的质疑。
While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge. Surowiecki's style is pleasantly informal, a tactical disguise for what might otherwise be rather dense material. He offers a great introduction to applied behavioral economics and game theory.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
群众的意见并不是统一的时候最准确,而恰恰是融合很多不同意见的时候,准确性超过任何个别专家的意见。 -------------------------------------- 作者区分了群众的力量可能解决的3种问题: cognition problem比如猜测股市价格,牛的重量等 coordination problem 比如协调开车,...
评分2003年,在很多的国家和地区同时经历了SARS危机。这是一种很像流感的疾病,但实验显示它不是流感病毒,而是一种新型的病毒和疾病。还没有发现SARS病源之前,人们只能通过 “隔离”的方式对付这种流行病毒。同年的3月15日,世界卫生组织与遍布世界各国和地区的11个研究实验室取...
评分春秋时,齐国曾几乎被燕国灭掉,在逃难中,田单把车轴外面的木头锯掉,得以脱身,而其他人则因这段木头太长,相互搅在一起,只好集体束手就擒。 改装一下车辆,这不需要很高明的思考,可为什么只有田单做到了呢?难道他比别人都聪明? 在生活中,我们经常可以看到这样的现象...
评分群体决策究竟智慧还是愚蠢?集权究竟高效还是低效?两者如何结合,并如何决定两种模式在什么情况下使用。这是群体心理学的诸多著述试图解决和研究的问题。 最具有耸动性的言论来自于勒庞,那就是群体的愚蠢,即乌合之众。乌合之众的形成是实实在在的现象,成因乃在于其组织的封...
评分股票市场体现了群体智慧,每个人得到的信息不同,汇总起来就会变得无微不至,进而使得集体的判断更切合实际。
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