The Wisdom of Crowds

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詹姆斯•索罗维基(James Surowiecki)

《纽约客》杂志特约撰稿人。他的文章见诸很多出版物,包括《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》《艺术论坛报》《连线》杂志和《候选人名单》杂志。索罗维基最初在《纽约客》杂志的“金融专版”阐述了群体智慧的思想,回答了美国社会长期以来对群体智慧和团队决策能力的质疑。

出版者:BETASCRIPT PUBLISHING
作者:James Surowiecki
出品人:
页数:98
译者:
出版时间:2005-8-16
价格:USD 15.00
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9786130456672
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While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge. Surowiecki's style is pleasantly informal, a tactical disguise for what might otherwise be rather dense material. He offers a great introduction to applied behavioral economics and game theory.

Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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《The Wisdom of Crowds》是James Surowiecki于2004年写就的,彼时,Web2.0还是新生事物,他还得用猜公牛体重的逸闻趣事、猜豆子的实验来佐证群体智慧的主张。而今,群体智慧的应用则俯拾皆是,不胜枚举:譬如Google的PageRank,Wiki, Imdb的推荐影片和豆瓣的推荐阅读等等。 要...  

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2005 / 03 / 23 在政治學的研究裡,當個體行為者面臨決策時,常會受到許多因素的干擾,這些因素又可歸結於三點:誤判──資訊太多可能掩蓋重要訊息,我們必須選擇性的接收外界資訊,而這些好不容易過濾的資訊,又有可能被自己誤判;情感偏見──我們可能因為個人信仰和理念、...  

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股票市场体现了群体智慧,每个人得到的信息不同,汇总起来就会变得无微不至,进而使得集体的判断更切合实际。  

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群众的意见并不是统一的时候最准确,而恰恰是融合很多不同意见的时候,准确性超过任何个别专家的意见。 -------------------------------------- 作者区分了群众的力量可能解决的3种问题: cognition problem比如猜测股市价格,牛的重量等 coordination problem 比如协调开车,...  

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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。

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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。

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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。

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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。

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有种穿越时光看过去的人如何群情激昂的感觉。。。。

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