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Richard Ned Lebow is the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and the Centennial Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His many books include A Cultural Theory of International Relations and We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton).

出版者:Princeton University Press

作者:Richard Ned Lebow

出品人:

頁數:348

译者:

出版時間:2010-1-18

價格:USD 28.95

裝幀:Paperback

isbn號碼:9780691132907

叢書系列:Princeton Studies in International History and Politics

圖書標籤:

方法論
國際關係
政治學
國際政治
Methodology
IR
自我啓發
政治分析

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Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In "Forbidden Fruit", Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, "Forbidden Fruit" also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's "The Plot Against America" to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.