鲁奇尔·夏尔马
很少有作者能够同时具备广阔的视角与丰富的国别知识,所以无法就中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥、土耳其等国的发展写出一部权威著作,但夏尔马做到了。
他是美国摩根士丹利公司新兴市场股票业务负责人,长期投资全球40多个中低收入国家,积累了大量一线检验自己投资实践的想法,并以独特的视角着眼于公司及行业发展、各国宏观经济。他还长期担任美国《新闻周刊》、《华尔街日报》专栏作家,定期跟踪全球经济发展趋势。
To identify the economic stars of the future we should abandon the habit of extrapolating from the recent past and lumping wildly diverse countries together. We need to remember that sustained economic success is a rare phenomenon. As an era of easy money and easy growth comes to a close, China in particular will cool down. Other major players including Brazil, Russia, and India face their own daunting challenges and inflated expectations. The new "breakout nations" will probably spring from the margins, even from the shadows. Ruchir Sharma, one of the world s largest investors in emerging markets for Morgan Stanley, here identifies which are most likely to leap ahead and why. After two decades spent traveling the globe tracking the progress of developing countries, Sharma has produced a book full of surprises: why the overpriced cocktails in Rio are a sign of revival in Detroit; how the threat of the "population bomb" came to be seen as a competitive advantage; how an industrial revolution in Asia is redefining what manufacturing can do for a modern economy; and how the coming shakeout in the big emerging markets could shift the spotlight back to the West, especially American technology and German manufacturing. What emerges is a clear picture of the shifting balance of global economic power and how it plays out for emerging nations and for the West. In a captivating exploration studded with vignettes, Sharma reveals his rules on how to spot economic success stories. Breakout Nations is a rollicking education for anyone looking to understand where the future will happen.
一两年前,若是有人唱衰“金砖国家”的经济表现,毋庸反驳,动辄超过5%的GDP增长也胜过万语千言。彼时新兴市场尚是全球增长的头雁,纵然身负伤痕,却毫无折翼之忧。相形之下,美国固然体量庞大,却似蹒跚的巨禽,不便振翅。至于多数欧洲国家,更是泥足深陷,难以自拔。 孰料光...
评分几年之前,新兴国家曾经是国际舞台上最炙手可热的经济明星。若是有人“胆敢”发出唱衰之音,毋庸反驳,动辄超过5%的GDP增长就已胜过万语千言。2007年,新兴经济体的增长神话达到了如日中天的顶峰,那一年,150个经济体中只有3个出现萎缩。由于确信新兴国家已经找到永葆增长的源...
评分《一炮走红的国家》作者、摩根士丹利新兴市场股票业务主管鲁奇尔·夏尔马近日来华与中国读者见面表示,未来新兴市场经济增长将出现分化,包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非在内的“金砖五国”将出现增长放缓甚至停滞,而菲律宾、泰国、印度尼西亚等东南亚国家将引领新兴市场...
评分体制中不存在魔力,民主政体并不能保证经济成功。重要的不是命令,而是发布命令的人。在经济成功方面,政治体制的重要性远比不上领导人的动力和远见。 中国的消费并未受到压制,在过去30年里,中国消费支出以年均9%的速度增长。形成这种错觉的可能原因是投资比消费增长得更快。...
评分从投资实战到付诸笔端,鲁奇尔·夏尔马将数十年投资新兴市场的心得和感悟汇聚成《一炮走红的国家》一书。担任美国摩根士丹利公司新兴市场股票业务主管的夏尔马出生于印度,正是这种独特身份和实践积累,令他同时具备不可或缺的广阔视角与国别知识。夏尔马对包括金砖四国、东南...
对中国消费,投资,人口,能源需求,世界影响力的分析相当高明。另外掷地有声的评论还有韩国,印尼,捷克波兰,日本美国,尼日利亚。
评分超出预期。值得读两遍以上
评分值得重读..
评分作为overview 只看了China India Brazil和Eastern Europe
评分It's no more reasonable to see every emerging market as BRICS, and spend money in commodity-rich countries crazily, like investors did in the past two decades. All countries can be a breakout nation, as long as they get the basic principles right. When there's no tailwind, everyone has to row.
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