The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025


The Signal and the Noise

简体网页||繁体网页
Nate Silver 作者
Penguin Press HC, The
译者
2012-9-27 出版日期
544 页数
USD 27.95 价格
Hardcover
丛书系列
9781594204111 图书编码

The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书标签: 统计  预测  大数据  思维  数学  NateSilver  经济  行为经济学   


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发表于2025-04-08


The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2025

The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2025

The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025



The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 用户评价

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结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好

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其实一般了

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No real insights and very boring, the US house market crash case makes me believe the author knows little on what he's talking about

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要正面解决问题 不逃避问题 所以患上数据毒...立刻找中文版看看 看看有没有接地气儿

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应该只有我一个人是当八卦书看的吧。Long live the great Haralabob!

The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 著者简介

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.


The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书目录


The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 在线电子书下载

The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书描述

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."

—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 读后感

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我们在生活中,经常碰到各种预测:股票技术人员天天预测各种股票的涨跌;谢国忠天天预测房价必跌,他几十年如一日的坚持,总有一天会对的;所谓的房地产“砖家”预测25年后北京的房价能够达到每平方米80万,这不是不可能发生,除非发生严重的通货膨胀吧;某地震局用狗来协助地...  

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这本书有点名实不符,或者说和阅读预期差异很大。本以为这是一本教你如何区分「信号与噪声」的书,但是阅读过半才发现,这本书其实主要讲的是各个领域的「信号」和「噪声」是什么,主要强调「我们可能高估了自己预测未来的能力」,但没有具体写怎么区分「信号与噪声」,只是提...  

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书中作者提到了几条预测需要遵守的原则。 原则一:用概率的方法思考问题。当我们回顾历史时,事物的发展变化似乎都是受一定的规律控制的,是必然的;但实际上,事物的发展都是路径依赖的,偶然性和随机性的影响很大,微小的条件变化就会导致结果的极大不同;因此,当我们面对...  

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神算子、神奇小子、来自未来的人……只要数一下纳特西尔弗身上的头衔,你就会明白——人们对于预言家的狂热崇拜自古至今从来没有消退过。在原始巫术被科学的烛火驱逐出境之后,预言家们又披上了科学的外衣卷土重来——在普通人眼中,现代科技早已复杂到与巫术无异。 就拿两次...  

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在奥巴马成功连任总统之前,美国几乎所有重要的刊物和评论员都认为,奥巴马和罗姆尼在伯仲之间,各有五成的胜算。此时,《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的作家Nate Silver却给出了不同的答案:Silver一直坚持奥巴马的胜算在七成左右。 Silver的这一论点让其他评论员对其群起...  

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