The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
发表于2025-04-08
The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025
前醍醐灌顶,后狂打酱油。又一部虎头蛇尾之典范。但是观点太有意义了。
评分应该只有我一个人是当八卦书看的吧。Long live the great Haralabob!
评分I CB158 S54 2012, business type
评分其实一般了
评分Nate昨天离开NYT到了ESPN,John Gruber的评论是“disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics”——Traditional model: mostly bullshit;Nate Silver: facts.
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
书中作者提到了几条预测需要遵守的原则。 原则一:用概率的方法思考问题。当我们回顾历史时,事物的发展变化似乎都是受一定的规律控制的,是必然的;但实际上,事物的发展都是路径依赖的,偶然性和随机性的影响很大,微小的条件变化就会导致结果的极大不同;因此,当我们面对...
评分今天出门的时候,看到满街树木都很憔悴,染上了深深浅浅的黄色。远远看到街角处一树红红绿绿层层叠叠的,就像是和纸和和服织锦般灿烂华美得不可思议……居然这时候开了花?忍不住走到树下驻足,凝眸细看——居然是棵枫树?!可我在这住了这么些年了,还是第一次发现自家楼下居...
评分我们在生活中,经常碰到各种预测:股票技术人员天天预测各种股票的涨跌;谢国忠天天预测房价必跌,他几十年如一日的坚持,总有一天会对的;所谓的房地产“砖家”预测25年后北京的房价能够达到每平方米80万,这不是不可能发生,除非发生严重的通货膨胀吧;某地震局用狗来协助地...
评分这是一本和大数据唱反调的书。 如果从哲学认识论的角度来看,人类的思维模式大体上可以归集为四种类型: 1、实验试错法 2、经验归纳法 3、类比联想法 4、逻辑演绎法 每种方法或者思维模式,并无绝对的优和绝对的劣,各有利弊、适用范围或局限性。 这本书光看书名,会以...
评分在奥巴马成功连任总统之前,美国几乎所有重要的刊物和评论员都认为,奥巴马和罗姆尼在伯仲之间,各有五成的胜算。此时,《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的作家Nate Silver却给出了不同的答案:Silver一直坚持奥巴马的胜算在七成左右。 Silver的这一论点让其他评论员对其群起...
The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025