The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
发表于2025-06-04
The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025
Nate昨天离开NYT到了ESPN,John Gruber的评论是“disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics”——Traditional model: mostly bullshit;Nate Silver: facts.
评分非常有意思的一本科普forecasting和bayesian的小书。一个行之有效的统计预测模型,需要有data和systematic theories支持。虽然很多人都在讲大数据时代correlation更重要,但弄清causality毫无疑问地会提高model performance,比方说天气预告 VS 地震预测。书里散落了很多令人眼前一亮的观点。
评分应该只有我一个人是当八卦书看的吧。Long live the great Haralabob!
评分结尾有点弱,但前边部分非常好
评分:O212.5/S587
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
神算子、神奇小子、来自未来的人……只要数一下纳特西尔弗身上的头衔,你就会明白——人们对于预言家的狂热崇拜自古至今从来没有消退过。在原始巫术被科学的烛火驱逐出境之后,预言家们又披上了科学的外衣卷土重来——在普通人眼中,现代科技早已复杂到与巫术无异。 就拿两次...
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The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025