The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
发表于2024-05-20
The Signal and the Noise 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024
其实一般了
评分来自各个领域的有趣事例,不过和经济金融直接相关的略少
评分这书主要说两件事儿:一是要多用贝叶斯概率预测,二是一般人就别玩扑克赌钱了。
评分要正面解决问题 不逃避问题 所以患上数据毒...立刻找中文版看看 看看有没有接地气儿
评分Nate昨天离开NYT到了ESPN,John Gruber的评论是“disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics”——Traditional model: mostly bullshit;Nate Silver: facts.
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
这本书有点名实不符,或者说和阅读预期差异很大。本以为这是一本教你如何区分「信号与噪声」的书,但是阅读过半才发现,这本书其实主要讲的是各个领域的「信号」和「噪声」是什么,主要强调「我们可能高估了自己预测未来的能力」,但没有具体写怎么区分「信号与噪声」,只是提...
评分1、大数据时代,信号与噪声并存,而且噪声往往容易掩盖信号,对数据未进行滤波分析的情况下贸然进行数据拟合,将造成模型的严重失真。 2、因果性与相关性并非等同,很多情况下,我们将相关性与因果性混为一谈。 3、作者在本书中的主旨在于对信号与噪声的关系进行分析,然而由于...
评分在奥巴马成功连任总统之前,美国几乎所有重要的刊物和评论员都认为,奥巴马和罗姆尼在伯仲之间,各有五成的胜算。此时,《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的作家Nate Silver却给出了不同的答案:Silver一直坚持奥巴马的胜算在七成左右。 Silver的这一论点让其他评论员对其群起...
评分在奥巴马成功连任总统之前,美国几乎所有重要的刊物和评论员都认为,奥巴马和罗姆尼在伯仲之间,各有五成的胜算。此时,《纽约时报》FiveThirtyEight博客的作家Nate Silver却给出了不同的答案:Silver一直坚持奥巴马的胜算在七成左右。 Silver的这一论点让其他评论员对其群起...
评分Nate Silver如今俨然美国权威的政治观察分析家。这位纽约时报(New York Times)广受关注的政治选举预测分析博客FiveThirtyEight 的作者,准确预测了2012美国总统大选所有50个州的结果,超越了自己在2008年总统大选中49个州结果预测正确的记录。但是如果Silver也出错了呢?恐怕...
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