罗伯特·鲁宾(Robert Rubin):花旗银行执行董事会主席,美国克林顿时期财政部长(1995—1999),高盛公司董事会主席(1990—1992)。作者呈现给读者的是一本“借自传形式介绍政策的书籍”。书中以很短的篇幅回忆了童年时代和求学历程,随后描述他人生经历中的华彩篇章(高盛—白宫—花旗),阐述了他所笃信的“或然性理论”,也从一个侧面讲述了美国前总统克林顿的工作和生活。
Robert Rubin was sworn in as the seventieth U.S. Secretary of the Treasury in January 1995 in a brisk ceremony attended only by his wife and a few colleagues. As soon as the ceremony was over, he began an emergency meeting with President Bill Clinton on the financial crisis in Mexico. This was not only a harbinger of things to come during what would prove to be a rocky period in the global economy; it also captured the essence of Rubin himself--short on formality, quick to get into the nitty-gritty.
From his early years in the storied arbitrage department at Goldman Sachs to his current position as chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup, Robert Rubin has been a major figure at the center of the American financial system. He was a key player in the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. With In an Uncertain World , Rubin offers a shrewd, keen analysis of some of the most important events in recent American history and presents a clear, consistent approach to thinking about markets and dealing with the new risks of the global economy.
Rubin's fundamental philosophy is that nothing is provably certain. Probabilistic thinking has guided his career in both business and government. We see that discipline at work in meetings with President Clinton and Hillary Clinton, Chinese premier Zhu Rongji, Alan Greenspan, Lawrence Summers, Newt Gingrich, Sanford Weill, and the late Daniel Patrick Moynihan. We see Rubin apply it time and again while facing financial crises in Asia, Russia, and Brazil; the federal government shutdown; the rise and fall of the stock market; the challenges of the post-September 11 world; the ongoing struggle over fiscal policy; and many other momentous economic and political events.
With a compelling and candid voice and a sharp eye for detail, Rubin portrays the daily life of the White House-confronting matters both mighty and mundane--as astutely as he examines the challenges that lie ahead for the nation. Part political memoir, part prescriptive economic analysis, and part personal look at business problems, In an Uncertain World is a deep examination of Washington and Wall Street by a figure who for three decades has been at the center of both worlds.
From the Hardcover edition.
金融的风险在于哪怕你估值准确,也不一定能赚取市场失灵造成的差价,因为市场失灵可以持续很久而不修正,在这段市场扭曲的存续期内,你已经破产了,被踢出局了。泡沫会破灭的,但你不一定能活到那一天。所以,做决策需要将这种可能考虑进去,不能仅仅凭借对自己的判断有信心就...
评分墨西哥市场上这些消极影响不断自我强化。由于投资者担心汇率可能下跌,他们纷纷兑换美元,造成了政府外汇储备进一步减少。这进一步又加大了比索币值下跌的可能,并加剧了人们对政府无法还款的担心。政府作出的为保护投资者以美元计算的资产不受损失,而用比索偿还政府短期债券...
评分书还没读完。 对于“或然性”, 如果只是总结为“不确定性”对于这本书,未免过于浅薄。 作者表示他读书的时候并没有想到他会做财长,这是一种或然性,然而并非如此。作者在读书的时候就喜欢哲学政治。从事法学是为了拓宽就业选择。从事金融是觉得钱多有趣,然而从新走入政坛...
评分As the treasury secretary of the Clinton government, there is no doubt he will defend his president, his colleagues, and himself. So when reading this book, we should bear in mind that the author, Robert Rubin, is a democrat and he will only tell part of th...
评分读完这本书再看中美战略对话,会觉得能够非常清楚的理解政治的背后所深藏的忍俊不禁。 也只有诸如Robin才能把这写的如此生动。很幸运,美国有这样聪明的Robin, 很不幸,美国这样的Robin不多。不过,中国没准就能占个便宜:)
不确定的世界 做好抉择
评分读过中文版。 书中讲到他个人的成长历程,值得借鉴,但更主要的更值得学习的是他如何做决策的观点,特别是在没有(也无法掌握)完全信息的情况下,如何处理危机。他在财长任中正赶上亚洲金融危机,得以大显身手。本书不仅对目前全球金融危机是及时的参照,也是一个人成长过程中的上好的养料。
评分Some parts are really difficult to read, some parts are very interesting. In general, worths my time. [2018 book 1]
评分philosophy
评分你知道他有很多没有告诉你,也明白告诉你的很多其实都是烟幕,可以说出来的那些烟幕。
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