Irrational Exuberance

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Robert J. Shiller is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is author of "The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century" (Princeton) and "Market Volatility and Macro Markets", which won the 1996 Paul A. Samuelson Award.

出版者:Princeton University Press
作者:Robert J. Shiller
出品人:
页数:304
译者:
出版时间:2005-2-22
价格:USD 35.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9780691123356
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 金融 
  • Finance 
  • 经济 
  • 经济学 
  • IrrationalExuberate 
  • Economics 
  • Shiller 
  • CFA 
  •  
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This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007

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非理性繁荣(第2版)

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席勒(Robert J.Shiller)教授在其在本人授课的耶鲁公开课《经济市场》上推荐的辅助教材之一。这本书因其“成功的预测了2000年和2007年两次金融及房产市场泡沫崩溃“而出名,当然事实上这本书只是幸运的在2000年金融泡沫破灭前刚好发表,显然整个经济泡沫涌起的90年代不断会有...  

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读到庞氏骗局深有体会,自己又半山腰上买入,所有的理论工具都会,所有的知识都知道,却非理性的买入了了,在3200点,就是因为我去了趟证券公司开了创业板,体会到了人家都挣了两倍,然后还是两千万,太刺激了我,所以我忍了半天又进去了,自己这么样就动摇了,所以庞氏骗局太...  

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在巴菲特都极为推崇的投资书籍《投资最重要的事》中谈及投资的钟摆理论,即市场一定是不断在牛熊之间转换,市场波动循环往复、永不停止。这就为在熊市买入,牛市卖出股票获利提供可能,因此投资不仅要参与填坑的阶段,价值投资倡导熊市中我们用废铁价买黄金以及通过基本面“捡...  

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一篇不含math & stats的通俗paper

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造纸选读

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一篇不含math & stats的通俗paper

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1929、1987年黑色星期一市场崩溃当天并没有什么特别的新闻。相反,起作用的是市场下跌本身,价格下跌产生了反馈环(price-to-price feedback)。

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Behavior of all speculative markets, instability of the capitalist system

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