Western Intelligence and the Collapse of the Soviet Union pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2025
David Arbel, is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer. Ran Edelist is a journalist and author.
- 极权主义
- 情报
- 国际关系
- International-Relations
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In the second half of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an event of major historic and global dimensions, yet this strategic transformation of international relations took the entire world totally by suprise - despite the fact that the West saw in the Communist power an ideological foe and a major military threat. During the 1980s Western intelligence services spent about USD40 billion every year, most of it to monitor the Soviet Union and its satellites. Yet all of them, without exception, were taken by surprise when the red empire crumbled. The American CIA, Britain's MI-6, Germany's BND and the French DGSE all failed to comprehend that the Soviet Union was approaching the end of its imperial existence. A handful of honest intelligence professionals who identified the signs of weakness and distress were shunted aside. The authors of this book interviewed dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, most of them in the United States, some in Europe, the Soviet Union and Israel. The interviewees included high ranking government officials, academics and journalists, but mostly intelligence personnel. All admitted having been caught off guard, but differed over the reasons for their surprise, and who was responsible for it.
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本书讲述了二战以来，美苏这两个国家，不断找寻着对方的弱点。在海洋、陆地、天空甚至太空都成了它们打斗的场所。本书的作者通过大量采访，受访者包括政府官员、学者以及情报官员，将二国知晓内幕的人的思维对策在本书中精彩呈现。对现今的社会仍具有历史的借鉴意义,值得深入思...
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评分情报机构在1991年的失败基本上要归咎于中情局负责国情评估任务的情报处。而2001年未能阻止恐怖袭击的失误则更为糟糕。1991年的失败所造成的惊讶可以说是“积极的”——对于调查委员会来说，西方情报机构未能洞察苏联的崩溃并不是什么大事。但是，没能发现和阻止针对世界贸易中...
评分既然美国等西方国家的情报机构几乎无孔不入，而且对于其主要对手——前苏联的监控程度可能是最为集中的，为什么前苏联的解体却没有被这些情报机构事先察觉？这不能不说是一个近似于谜一样的问题。这本书就是分析了西方情报机构为何不能预测了预判诸如此类的“大事件”。这本书...
评分西方人对苏联研究的失败之处，在于他们没有预测能力，但他们受意识形态驱使而排斥对世界上这个地区做较为精确的社会科学分析，而这种分析可能包括“良好动机的成分，包括理性主义、利他主义、人的创造性，以及与“构造上的”宿命论和一概非法相反的不理智。真正的失败之处，在...
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