Western Intelligence and the Collapse of the Soviet Union 在线电子书 图书标签: 极权主义 情报 国际关系 International-Relations #FDP #
发表于2025-03-27
Western Intelligence and the Collapse of the Soviet Union 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025
David Arbel, is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer. Ran Edelist is a journalist and author.
In the second half of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an event of major historic and global dimensions, yet this strategic transformation of international relations took the entire world totally by suprise - despite the fact that the West saw in the Communist power an ideological foe and a major military threat. During the 1980s Western intelligence services spent about USD40 billion every year, most of it to monitor the Soviet Union and its satellites. Yet all of them, without exception, were taken by surprise when the red empire crumbled. The American CIA, Britain's MI-6, Germany's BND and the French DGSE all failed to comprehend that the Soviet Union was approaching the end of its imperial existence. A handful of honest intelligence professionals who identified the signs of weakness and distress were shunted aside. The authors of this book interviewed dozens of people who dealt with Soviet affairs in the 1980s, most of them in the United States, some in Europe, the Soviet Union and Israel. The interviewees included high ranking government officials, academics and journalists, but mostly intelligence personnel. All admitted having been caught off guard, but differed over the reasons for their surprise, and who was responsible for it.
阅读本书好像是在政客和情报官员的关系迷雾中漫步,其相识的分析不仅具备学术性,而且极富故事性,可以使普通读者了解冷战时期世界是如何变动的。其实这个故事挺可悲的,清包机构庞大臃肿,垄断专权,资源丰富,却未能遇见历史转折点的到来。这是近代历史上情报机构最明显的失败。
评分这本书用大量事例说明,即便是受过优良教育,信息足够的西方领导人,在情报机构送来的客观事实面前,往往也只相信自己愿意相信的,或者自己的直观感受;情报机构的领导人往往也是这么对自己下属的。这种心态又直接反作用于情报机构里的下属给领导送的报告,以及情报给政治家送...
评分情报机构在1991年的失败基本上要归咎于中情局负责国情评估任务的情报处。而2001年未能阻止恐怖袭击的失误则更为糟糕。1991年的失败所造成的惊讶可以说是“积极的”——对于调查委员会来说,西方情报机构未能洞察苏联的崩溃并不是什么大事。但是,没能发现和阻止针对世界贸易中...
评分西方人对苏联研究的失败之处,在于他们没有预测能力,但他们受意识形态驱使而排斥对世界上这个地区做较为精确的社会科学分析,而这种分析可能包括“良好动机的成分,包括理性主义、利他主义、人的创造性,以及与“构造上的”宿命论和一概非法相反的不理智。真正的失败之处,在...
评分本书的观点就是:所有的西方情报机构——从美国中情局、以色列摩萨德、英国的军情六处,法国的对外安全局、意大利的军事情报局,到斯堪的纳维亚半岛国家和日本的情报机构——都没能预见到苏联的解体,堪称最明显的失败。作者进行了大量采访,使得本书引人入胜,可读性强,不像...
Western Intelligence and the Collapse of the Soviet Union 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025