Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024

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Bilal M. Ayyub 作者

CRC Press

译者

2001-6-27 出版日期

328 页数

USD 146.95 价格

Hardcover

丛书系列

9780849310874 图书编码

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Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2024

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Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.

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