The Black Swan 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 作者

Random House Trade Paperbacks

译者

2010-5-11 出版日期

480 页数

USD 17.00 价格

Paperback

丛书系列

9780812973815 图书编码

The Black Swan 在线电子书图书标签: 社会学金融思维哲学 Finance 风险管理英文原版经济

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发表于2025-03-28

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The Black Swan 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2025

The Black Swan 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025

The Black Swan 在线电子书用户评价

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和Fooled by Randomness比，这本书写得长了一点，有点啰嗦 2019.12.11读第二遍后记：一直想把这本书再读一遍。但是再读完一遍反而觉得没那么好了。很多思想来自别的作者，又很啰嗦。似乎全书的核心就是批评高斯分布的滥用，因为高斯分布离均值越远，概率下降越快，从而低估了outlier出现的可能（厚尾）。当然更多的黑天鹅来自不知道的分布。这本书也没有Fooled by Randomness写得幽默。

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这书要是短一半可以给五颗星。

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还好吧。虽然很不喜欢作者 build his argument 的方式

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这书要是短一半可以给五颗星。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

这书要是短一半可以给五颗星。

The Black Swan 在线电子书著者简介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

The Black Swan 在线电子书图书目录

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The Black Swan 在线电子书图书描述

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"

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