Seize the advantage in every risk decision with the most misunderstood asset you have--human emotion "If you are trying to solve the unsolvable, stop. Read this first and you will learn that the surest path to success will be to start with yourself; solve that conundrum and challenges like understanding how you do and should react to markets will come to be solvable." --Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus, Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago "When it comes to fast-moving global financial markets, professional investors strive to evaluate complex economic conditions from data analysis, economic reasoning, and professional judgment. This is what is taught in business schools. Denise Shull demonstrates how investment decision making is also determined by unconscious emotions and perceptions. Market Mind Games is a fascinating book that proposes a new and unexpected hypothesis about the factors that drive financial decision-making." --A.G. Malliaris, Professor of Economics and Finance, Loyola University Chicago "Denise Shull wants us to get in touch with our feelings, not to beat our bare chests and utter primordial screams. Far from it--her techniques are focused on making more money." --Financial Times "Denise Shull's gem of a book is long overdue...[Market Mind Games] has made the ability to analyze and overcome our unconscious biases and prejudices available to everyone." --Dr. Donald T. Wargo, Department of Economics, Temple University "Market Mind Games is iconoclastic to say the very least! Pay attention to the last word in the subtitle: risk. This book will change your perspective on how to approach and think about the markets and your life!" --Michael J. Levas, Founder, Senior Managing Principal, and Director of Trading, Olympian Capital Management, LLC "Denise changes the way you look at yourself and investing. Her insights and methods are necessary to succeed in the markets, period." --Jared Levy, Portfolio Manager and author of Your Options Handbook "Market Mind Games offers a new school of trading psychology. Truly an important work that needs to be on the bookshelf of every serious market participant." --Mike Bellafiore, author of One Good Trade "Masterful explanation of not only why emotionless trading is a myth, but how we can take advantage of our natural wiring to gain an edge." --Derek Hernquist, Chief Investment Officer, Integrative Capital, LLC "Shull details ways to learn how you 'feel' before you 'act' so that your buy, sell, or hold decisions become more successful." --E. Bernstein, OPUS Trading "A must-read for those who want to make their livelihood as a professional investor, trader, or algorithmic trading developer." --Larry Tabb, founder and CEO, Tabb Group "Denise Shull enlightens the reader how to effectively unlock one's psychological capital and translate that awareness into clear and concise investment decisions." --Grant Mashek, Managing Member, Palm Equity, LLC "Shull's book is not only a great read but lays out an entirely more effective approach to thinking about any decision that involves the unknown--market related or not." --Leslie Shaw, Ph.D., Behavioral Economics, and trained psychoanalyst About the Book: What if the mystery of market crashes stems from a simple but total misunderstanding of our own minds? Could everything we think we know about ourselves--intelligence and rationality versus emotion and irrationality--be wildly off the mark? Simply put: yes. With these words, Denise Shull introduces her radical--and supremely rational-- approach to risk. Her vision stems from the indisputable fact that human beings can't make any decision at all without emotion and that emotion gets the first--and last--word when it comes to our perceptions and judgments. Shull should know. She started out managing major accounts for IBM and then chose to research unconscious emotional patterns instead of getting her MBA. Next she became a trader and trading desk manager while continuing to study biopsychology. We are all taught that sidelining our emotions is the best way to make good decisions-- Shull declares the converse: emotions inform us. Attempting to control them actually increases the risks we take. Shull advocates treating feelings as data, and she convincingly argues that doing so eradicates the baffling question that repeats itself in our heads after making a poor investing decision: "What was I thinking?" Through a series of "lectures," Shull logically but engagingly connects emotions, beliefs, and context to our innate reaction to uncertainty and risk (yes, the two are different). In Market Mind Games, she merges more than 20 years of studying risk decisions into a single, astoundingly effective strategy. A reasonable approach to emotion is the best and only way to win the investing game. The methods Shull details in Market Mind Games shake the foundation of conventional market and decision psychology. And, most important, they work.
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《Market Mind Games》的阅读体验是令人振奋的,因为它不仅仅提供了知识,更是一种思维的启迪。我被作者对于市场“共识”的分析所吸引。他解释了市场共识是如何形成的,以及当这种共识被打破时,会带来多么剧烈的市场波动。他用历史上的几个经典案例,展示了当市场对某种资产或某个宏观趋势形成一致看法时,其潜在的风险和机会。这让我意识到,在投资决策中,理解市场的“主流观点”固然重要,但更重要的是要敢于质疑,并在必要时挑战它,去寻找那些被忽视的价值。
评分我必须说,这本书让我对“非理性繁荣”和“非理性下跌”这两个概念有了全新的认识。作者深入剖析了这些周期是如何发生的,以及心理因素在其中扮演的核心角色。他通过详细的数据分析和案例研究,揭示了泡沫是如何形成的,以及当投资者集体陷入狂热时,价格会脱离基本面多远。同时,他也描述了在市场恐慌时,资产价格是如何被低估的。这本书帮助我建立了一个更全面的市场观,让我理解到,市场的波动并非总是基于理性的经济规律,更多的时候,它是人类集体心理状态的反映。
评分《Market Mind Games》的结尾部分,作者提出了一些关于如何培养“市场韧性”的建议,这让我印象深刻。他强调,在市场中取得长期成功,不仅仅是依靠精准的预测,更重要的是能够承受住市场的压力,并在挫折中不断学习和成长。他分享了一些个人经历,以及他如何从过去的错误中吸取教训,逐步建立起自己的交易系统和心理防线。这些真诚的分享让我感到非常鼓舞,也让我对未来的投资之路有了更清晰的认识。这本书并不是一本让你一夜暴富的秘籍,而是一本帮助你修炼内功、成为更成熟投资者的指南。
评分《Market Mind Games》的语言风格非常独特,它既有学术研究的严谨性,又不乏文学作品的感染力。作者在描述一些极端市场状况时,用词非常生动,仿佛将读者带入了那个充满压力的交易大厅。我尤其欣赏他使用的一些比喻,它们能够精准地传达出复杂的情绪和市场动态,比如将市场比作一个难以捉摸的生物,或者将投资决策比作一场高风险的心理游戏。这种描绘方式让我能够更深刻地理解市场波动背后的驱动力,而不仅仅是从数据层面去理解。它让我感觉到,作者不仅仅是一个金融分析师,更是一个深刻的社会观察者和心理学家。
评分这本书的封面设计就足够吸引人,一种神秘的、似乎隐藏着什么重要信息的视觉冲击力。拿到《Market Mind Games》的那一刻,我脑海中涌现的第一感觉是,这本书并非仅仅是关于股票市场的技术分析或经济理论的堆砌,而是更深层次地探讨了市场背后那些看不见的心理博弈。从阅读的第一页开始,我就被作者的叙述方式深深吸引。他没有使用过于学术或枯燥的语言,而是像在与一位经验丰富的朋友分享他的智慧和洞察。我特别喜欢作者在开篇就点出的一个观点,即市场并非完全理性的实体,而是由无数个受到情绪、偏见和集体心理影响的个体组成的集合体。这一下就打破了我之前对市场的固有认知,让我意识到,要想在这个复杂的环境中生存并取得成功,理解人性的弱点和驱动力至关重要。
评分我非常喜欢作者在书中对“确定性偏见”的探讨。他解释了为什么人们总是倾向于寻找确定性,即使这种确定性是虚假的,以及这种偏见是如何在市场中被利用的。举例来说,很多时候,投资者会过度依赖技术指标的“信号”,而忽略了其内在的随机性。作者用非常形象的例子说明了,过度的自信和对确定性的追求,往往会成为投资的“陷阱”。这种观点让我反思了自己过去在某些交易中的决策,是否就是因为过于相信某个指标或某个“专家”的预测,而忽略了市场的真实变化。
评分作者在书中对于“叙事”在市场中的作用的论述,也让我耳目一新。他指出,市场不仅仅是数字和图表的集合,更是一个由各种故事、传言和预言交织而成的复杂网络。这些叙事,无论是关于某个公司的未来前景,还是关于宏观经济的走向,都能极大地影响投资者的情绪和行为。我特别喜欢作者对“预期管理”的分析,他解释了公司如何通过发布各种信息来塑造市场对未来的预期,以及投资者如何被这些叙事所引导。这让我意识到,在解读市场信号时,不仅要关注事实本身,还要去理解这些事实背后所传递的“故事”,以及这个故事是如何被传播和解读的。
评分《Market Mind Games》给我最大的启发在于,它让我认识到,很多时候,我们输给市场并非因为我们不够聪明,而是因为我们在心理上未能战胜自己。作者通过大量真实的交易案例,生动地展示了贪婪和恐惧是如何摧毁许多本应成功的投资。我至今还记得书中描述的那位投资者,他在市场下跌时因为恐惧而过早割肉,结果错过了随后的反弹;另一位则因为贪婪,在利润已经相当可观时依然不愿离场,最终导致利润回吐甚至亏损。这些故事让我感同身受,也迫使我开始审视自己过往的交易行为,那些因为情绪驱动而做出的非理性决策。这本书提供了一种全新的视角,让我开始将自我认知和情绪管理放在与技术分析同等重要的位置。
评分这本书给我带来的另一个重要改变,是让我对“信息不对称”有了更深刻的理解。作者详细分析了在信息传播过程中,由于各种原因导致的信息失真和不对称,以及这如何被市场参与者所利用。他描述了那些掌握了关键信息的人,如何通过巧妙的策略来影响市场走向,而普通投资者往往处于信息劣势。这让我更加警惕那些看似“免费”的建议或信息,并开始更加注重独立思考和信息验证。我开始明白,在信息爆炸的时代,如何筛选和辨别有效信息,本身就是一项重要的投资技能。
评分这本书的结构安排非常巧妙,它并非按照时间顺序或者简单的知识分类来展开,而是通过一系列引人入胜的故事和案例研究,层层剥茧地揭示市场中的“思维游戏”。我尤其欣赏作者如何将心理学原理与实际的市场行为联系起来,例如他详细解释了“羊群效应”是如何在恐慌性抛售或狂热性追涨中扮演关键角色的。他不仅仅是描述现象,更是深入分析了背后的心理机制,比如人们对不确定性的恐惧,以及对群体认同的渴望。读到关于“锚定效应”的那部分时,我豁然开朗,原来许多投资决策中的价格锚定,即便是不合理的,也能对人们的预期产生持久的影响。作者的分析深入浅出,让我能够轻松理解这些复杂的心理概念,并将其与我在实际市场中观察到的现象一一对应。
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