戴纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布,绝大多数时候都是一名漫游者,在地球各个角落的咖啡厅里冥想。他早年曾经从商,目前是纽约大学特聘教授。曾在纽约和伦敦交易多种衍生性金融商品,也曾在芝加哥当过营业厅的独立交易员。2001年2月正式成为衍生性金融商品交易战略名人堂的一员。他的作品包括《随机致富的傻瓜》和《黑天鹅》,后者曾连续一年多列位《纽约时报》畅销书榜,以31种语言出版,是一本知识、社会和文化方面的经典著作。
Selected by Amazon.com and The Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. Already published in 14 languages, the book?s title has entered our vocabulary. After reading the excitement expressed below for Fooled by Randomness one realizes that its world-wide bestseller status is no random event. This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
《随机致富的傻瓜》总体印象 这本书本来没有打算开始看的,不过周日去书店捧了一堆书回来路上老婆有点事情,我做在路边台阶上随手拿本书来翻看,当时又不能勾画东西,只好找本相对简单的,结果就拿到了这本。 这本书基本与致富无关,唯一引入这个词汇,只不过是因为作者是从事...
评分 评分西方哲学史上被公认为第一位哲学家的希腊人泰勒斯,原本是一个商人,但是他却不好好挣钱,总是研究些没有用的事情。有一天,泰勒斯走在旷野间,抬头看着星空,结果不防脚下一个坑,掉进坑里摔个半死。于是希腊人笑话说,哲学家都是些没用的人。 泰勒斯很给哲...
评分英国历史学家尼耶尔•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)在《未曾发生的历史》(Visual History)一书中让偶然性在历史进程中翩翩起舞,他设想了一系列人类在某些重大时刻可能进入的历史分叉小径,比如没有克伦威尔的英国,独立战争遭遇失败的美国和爱尔兰,二战中向希特勒投降的英国...
评分给四星是因为作者所推崇的“科学的可证伪性”,那一星的空白权当是尊重作者本意使之“科学化”了。还是Robert Shiller的金融市场课的参考书目。课听到一半倒是把书搜出来一口气一个通宵给看完了。颠覆啊!作者不相信投资组合那套,评价巴菲特的简朴作风“毫无必要”。这里探讨...
读下来让人难过,人类是追求确定性的生物,但是世界却充满了随机性。作者也没有,实际上可能没人能有什么可行的解决办法。不过现实既然如此,就应该坦然接受。本书值得再读,用以提醒自己。中文版翻译的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
评分Bad Writer....
评分读下来让人难过,人类是追求确定性的生物,但是世界却充满了随机性。作者也没有,实际上可能没人能有什么可行的解决办法。不过现实既然如此,就应该坦然接受。本书值得再读,用以提醒自己。中文版翻译的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
评分吃力读完,读懂不到一半…
评分读下来让人难过,人类是追求确定性的生物,但是世界却充满了随机性。作者也没有,实际上可能没人能有什么可行的解决办法。不过现实既然如此,就应该坦然接受。本书值得再读,用以提醒自己。中文版翻译的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
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