Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 概率 經濟投資 方法論 randomness 經濟 Finance investment/finance fooled
發表於2025-04-27
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025
Bad Writer....
評分讀下來讓人難過,人類是追求確定性的生物,但是世界卻充滿瞭隨機性。作者也沒有,實際上可能沒人能有什麼可行的解決辦法。不過現實既然如此,就應該坦然接受。本書值得再讀,用以提醒自己。中文版翻譯的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
評分讀下來讓人難過,人類是追求確定性的生物,但是世界卻充滿瞭隨機性。作者也沒有,實際上可能沒人能有什麼可行的解決辦法。不過現實既然如此,就應該坦然接受。本書值得再讀,用以提醒自己。中文版翻譯的是英文第一版,英文版已有第二版。
評分Bad Writer....
評分吃力讀完,讀懂不到一半…
戴納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布,絕大多數時候都是一名漫遊者,在地球各個角落的咖啡廳裏冥想。他早年曾經從商,目前是紐約大學特聘教授。曾在紐約和倫敦交易多種衍生性金融商品,也曾在芝加哥當過營業廳的獨立交易員。2001年2月正式成為衍生性金融商品交易戰略名人堂的一員。他的作品包括《隨機緻富的傻瓜》和《黑天鵝》,後者曾連續一年多列位《紐約時報》暢銷書榜,以31種語言齣版,是一本知識、社會和文化方麵的經典著作。
Selected by Amazon.com and The Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. Already published in 14 languages, the book?s title has entered our vocabulary. After reading the excitement expressed below for Fooled by Randomness one realizes that its world-wide bestseller status is no random event. This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
这本书用简单的统计学概念有趣地解释了许多常见的投资现象,其中最为核心的,是收益的不对称与决策的非理性对长期投资的种种影响。在某种意义上,这些讨论不仅对投资客有价值,也具有极强的哲学含义,可以在生活中的方方面面得到印证。 书中的一个核心问题是普遍存在的收益不...
評分 評分呵呵,一年半没买闲书了,印象中上次破例是为了伍迪艾伦《门萨的娼妓》,口袋里只有25块,八折拿下定价25元的书,感觉竟像大大的赚了一笔。 这次在光合作用找教材,寻未果,但又被我不小心瞄到了这一本。这次的经验再次验证了边际效用递减的逆否命题~~~ 书名本是Fooled By Rand...
評分 評分英国历史学家尼耶尔•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)在《未曾发生的历史》(Visual History)一书中让偶然性在历史进程中翩翩起舞,他设想了一系列人类在某些重大时刻可能进入的历史分叉小径,比如没有克伦威尔的英国,独立战争遭遇失败的美国和爱尔兰,二战中向希特勒投降的英国...
Fooled by Randomness (Second Edition) 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025