Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, California. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and taught there as Assistant Professor for seven years. He has won two teaching awards and authored more than seventy academic papers, nine textbooks, and seven educational software programs. This is his first trade book.
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter “D” are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these “facts” have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics.
As Nobel Prize–winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, “If you torture data long enough, it will confess.” Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.
With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.
好书,这本书石锤了很多畅销书,比如基业长青,创新者的窘境,魔鬼经济学之类的,简直就是自媒体营销号的天然对头。不想被收割智商税的人,必读。 所有预测的书都是错的,因为他们的模型都建立在统计相关上,而非因果关系上。本质是一种赌博。 回溯性研究的意义在于我们可以把...
评分好书,这本书石锤了很多畅销书,比如基业长青,创新者的窘境,魔鬼经济学之类的,简直就是自媒体营销号的天然对头。不想被收割智商税的人,必读。 所有预测的书都是错的,因为他们的模型都建立在统计相关上,而非因果关系上。本质是一种赌博。 回溯性研究的意义在于我们可以把...
评分 评分 评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
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