Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025


Fooled by Randomness

简体网页||繁体网页
Nassim Nicholas Taleb 作者
Random House
译者
2008-10 出版日期
368 页数
USD 30.00 价格
Hardcover
丛书系列
9781400067930 图书编码

Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 图书标签: Finance  金融  思维  经济  随机  投资  心理学  概率论   


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发表于2025-03-29


Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2025

Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2025

Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025



Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 用户评价

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介绍了概率在生活中的影响,用平行宇宙的思维方式考虑生活中的问题,如何计算生活中的概率问题,为什么人们天生不擅长概率,对于概率问题的态度。

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满载作者优越感的烂书

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课程必读材料,读了一页就遇到了一个问题:I can't read it if I can't even see the words over the author's ego. 撑着读了四章,实在看不下去了。

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看完以后,发现几个新的兴趣点。一,波普尔的科学哲学和开放社会。二,行为经济学。三,概率论。四,期权市场及策略。

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You just need to constantly reread these stuffs.

Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 著者简介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.

Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.


Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 图书目录


Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 在线电子书下载

Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 图书描述

Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading– Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS :

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

“[ Fooled by Randomness ] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”

–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink

“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”

–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”

–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”

–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate

“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”

–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance

“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”

–National Review

“If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.”

–Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

“Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.”

–Financial Times

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Fooled by Randomness 在线电子书 读后感

评分

关于数字与概率 我们迟早会了解概率终究是个用来看问题的定性手法,它是怀疑之子。数学主要是用来作为冥思的工具,而不是当作计算工具使用。真正的随机现象看起来并不随机。 讨论概率问题时我不建议会计师参加。对会计师来说,数字就是数字。如果他对概率有兴趣,早就投入...  

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呵呵,一年半没买闲书了,印象中上次破例是为了伍迪艾伦《门萨的娼妓》,口袋里只有25块,八折拿下定价25元的书,感觉竟像大大的赚了一笔。 这次在光合作用找教材,寻未果,但又被我不小心瞄到了这一本。这次的经验再次验证了边际效用递减的逆否命题~~~ 书名本是Fooled By Rand...  

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英国历史学家尼耶尔•弗格森(Niall Ferguson)在《未曾发生的历史》(Visual History)一书中让偶然性在历史进程中翩翩起舞,他设想了一系列人类在某些重大时刻可能进入的历史分叉小径,比如没有克伦威尔的英国,独立战争遭遇失败的美国和爱尔兰,二战中向希特勒投降的英国...  

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这本书用简单的统计学概念有趣地解释了许多常见的投资现象,其中最为核心的,是收益的不对称与决策的非理性对长期投资的种种影响。在某种意义上,这些讨论不仅对投资客有价值,也具有极强的哲学含义,可以在生活中的方方面面得到印证。 书中的一个核心问题是普遍存在的收益不...  

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