Fooled by Randomness

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.

Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.

出版者:Random House
作者:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
出品人:
页数:368
译者:
出版时间:2008-10
价格:USD 30.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9781400067930
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • Finance 
  • 金融 
  • 思维 
  • 经济 
  • 随机 
  • 投资 
  • 心理学 
  • 概率论 
  •  
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Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading– Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS :

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

“[ Fooled by Randomness ] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”

–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink

“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”

–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”

–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”

–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate

“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”

–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance

“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”

–National Review

“If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.”

–Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders

“Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.”

–Financial Times

具体描述

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如果一位投资者告诉你他认为开盘后美国股市上涨的可能性非常大,但是与此同时他却又在大手做空美股指数,你会作何感想?恐怕不是当他骗子,就是当他疯子。   不过你看完这本《随机致富的傻瓜》,就会重新认识此问题了,因为曾经出现过上述行为的,恰是此书的作者纳西姆·...

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中学大学一直踢球,但先天身体素质不好,速度不快,身材不高,两个冲刺就喘,腿上没有发达的肌肉,发个角球到禁区都成问题。 这样的人如何在球队滥竽充数,是一个高深的技巧。今天把我中学校队、大学系队,毕业多年参加业余足球联赛还能时而蒙进球的秘籍公开,不是有本书叫《生...  

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呵呵,一年半没买闲书了,印象中上次破例是为了伍迪艾伦《门萨的娼妓》,口袋里只有25块,八折拿下定价25元的书,感觉竟像大大的赚了一笔。 这次在光合作用找教材,寻未果,但又被我不小心瞄到了这一本。这次的经验再次验证了边际效用递减的逆否命题~~~ 书名本是Fooled By Rand...  

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我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大,或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料,未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人,我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史(denigration of history):因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得,发生在别人身上的事情,不见得会发生...  

用户评价

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看完以后,发现几个新的兴趣点。一,波普尔的科学哲学和开放社会。二,行为经济学。三,概率论。四,期权市场及策略。

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断断续续花了好久才读完的一本好书。

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介绍了概率在生活中的影响,用平行宇宙的思维方式考虑生活中的问题,如何计算生活中的概率问题,为什么人们天生不擅长概率,对于概率问题的态度。

评分

看完以后,发现几个新的兴趣点。一,波普尔的科学哲学和开放社会。二,行为经济学。三,概率论。四,期权市场及策略。

评分

断断续续花了好久才读完的一本好书。

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