Rational Decisions 在線電子書 圖書標籤: GameTheory 經濟學 Bayesian 教材 心理學 決策 binmore Behavioral-Economics
發表於2024-11-23
Rational Decisions 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024
Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
評分Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
評分霍布斯將人刻畫為肉體、激情、經驗以及理性。經濟學用偏好代替激情,以貝葉斯概率描繪經驗,憑藉理性保持顯示偏好下的行為一緻性,以此來模擬肉體所展現的一係列行為。
評分Utility Bargaining計算 von Neumann and morgenstern
評分霍布斯將人刻畫為肉體、激情、經驗以及理性。經濟學用偏好代替激情,以貝葉斯概率描繪經驗,憑藉理性保持顯示偏好下的行為一緻性,以此來模擬肉體所展現的一係列行為。
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.
The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.
Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
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Rational Decisions 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2024