The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 图书标签: 概率统计 统计学 概率 statistics 思维 心理学 统计 数学
发表于2024-11-21
The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024
醉汉的脚步
评分history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it
评分关于概率统计的历史科普故事,文字很好读。2012.7.1-2012.7.9,8h27min。
评分关于概率统计的历史科普故事,文字很好读。2012.7.1-2012.7.9,8h27min。
评分太不适合摸鱼看了,在研究室憋笑好痛苦…………其他人以为我看论文看到笑场,关心患者的目光.jpg/(ㄒoㄒ)/
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
一直以来都非常讨厌结果科学,这本书和《光环效应》一样是反对结果科学的杰作。然而角度却完全不同,《光环效应》的角度更宏观一些,而这本书则更具说服力,对随机性和概率的解释拥有坚实的数学基础,这本书可以算是“读好书节省时间”的代表了。
评分 评分醉汉的脚步虽然是一本数学科普书,实则在探讨人生观了。我们的大脑习惯于因果性,不适应随机性,会事后诸葛亮的赋予结果以原因和模式,会羊群效应般的从众,这些也许出于本能中对安全的需求。 这本书至少给出了认识客观事实、认识成败、思索人生的另一个角度。既然随机性在事...
评分 评分The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024