The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 图书标签: 概率统计 统计学 概率 statistics 思维 心理学 统计 数学
发表于2025-04-20
The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025
太不适合摸鱼看了,在研究室憋笑好痛苦…………其他人以为我看论文看到笑场,关心患者的目光.jpg/(ㄒoㄒ)/
评分读完又滚回去捡起概率论沉思录了…
评分看到结尾略微感动。觉得自己的命挺好的了。概率论入门书,夹带人生道理。
评分Not bad
评分所谓制胜必有惊人之举,那是因为即使是日常生活,事情的本来面目常常是counterintuition的。“物理学已经向我们证明,草坪的绿色并不只是绿色,石头的硬并不只是硬,而是一些很不同的东西”。概率,或者机遇,也是这么个意思!这本书很好看!
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
这不是一本入门类,而有点深度的介绍统计发展史的书籍,配以精选的故事或案例,需要有相关统计和概率知识基础才好理解。第一遍阅读时追求速度,感觉很累,只打了3星;第二遍时放慢速度,体会作者的思路,觉得是一本有深度的介绍类书籍,改为5星。 利用本书第一章和第十章的内...
评分一直以来都非常讨厌结果科学,这本书和《光环效应》一样是反对结果科学的杰作。然而角度却完全不同,《光环效应》的角度更宏观一些,而这本书则更具说服力,对随机性和概率的解释拥有坚实的数学基础,这本书可以算是“读好书节省时间”的代表了。
The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2025