The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 图书标签: 概率统计 统计学 概率 statistics 思维 心理学 统计 数学
发表于2024-12-22
The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024
history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it
评分Not bad
评分history of randomness... it's not bad. but not my area of interest. read about half of it
评分看看
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Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
正如这本书的副标题所说的,How Randomness Rules Our Lives,书里主要阐述的是如何认识随机性对我们生活的影响。 各章节的笔记见:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19391977/ 作者从历史发展的角度讲述了人们一步步认识随机性,并由此建立了概率论和统计方法的过程。书中...
评分这本书还是几年前在大学里面看的,却一直记得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的笔调从概率的角度,为我们分析了为什么有时候你努力了却还是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 为什么呢?因为一件事情要发展到最后一步,即他的结果,是由许多因素影响的。往往我们只看到了我们可控...
评分这本书还是几年前在大学里面看的,却一直记得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的笔调从概率的角度,为我们分析了为什么有时候你努力了却还是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 为什么呢?因为一件事情要发展到最后一步,即他的结果,是由许多因素影响的。往往我们只看到了我们可控...
评分 评分所谓醉汉的脚步,是一个用来描述随机运动的数学术语。作者Leonard Mlodinow以此命名其书,是给读者一个直观冲击:生活中的很多事情,如同宿醉者的脚步一般难以预测。写作此书,也是为了在研究随机性的学术圈和普罗大众之间搭起一座桥梁,那些被学术精英们用来研究和理解醉汉的...
The Drunkard's Walk 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024