The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
發表於2025-03-03
The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025
從前沒好好學過概率統計的人讀後錶示受益非淺
評分所謂製勝必有驚人之舉,那是因為即使是日常生活,事情的本來麵目常常是counterintuition的。“物理學已經嚮我們證明,草坪的綠色並不隻是綠色,石頭的硬並不隻是硬,而是一些很不同的東西”。概率,或者機遇,也是這麼個意思!這本書很好看!
評分Randomness VS Necessity. 事情的發生更多是因為能力還是運氣?
評分作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。
評分看看
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
“你知道吗?在去买彩票的路上因车祸身亡的可能性。是彩票中奖的可能性的两倍!打破了贝比•鲁斯本垒打纪录的奇人罗杰•马立斯,也非常可能仅仅是幸运而非伟大!一种葡萄酒被某本刊物给予了五颗星的最高评分,却被另一本刊物评为一个年代中最差的葡萄酒……” 中考前在一...
評分“你知道吗?在去买彩票的路上因车祸身亡的可能性。是彩票中奖的可能性的两倍!打破了贝比•鲁斯本垒打纪录的奇人罗杰•马立斯,也非常可能仅仅是幸运而非伟大!一种葡萄酒被某本刊物给予了五颗星的最高评分,却被另一本刊物评为一个年代中最差的葡萄酒……” 中考前在一...
評分这不是一本入门类,而有点深度的介绍统计发展史的书籍,配以精选的故事或案例,需要有相关统计和概率知识基础才好理解。第一遍阅读时追求速度,感觉很累,只打了3星;第二遍时放慢速度,体会作者的思路,觉得是一本有深度的介绍类书籍,改为5星。 利用本书第一章和第十章的内...
評分读书笔记 - 文字摘录地址:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19550698/ 芝诺悖论 古希腊数学家芝诺(Zeno of Elea)提出的一系列关于运动的不可分性的哲学悖论。这些悖论由于被记录在亚里士多德的《物理学》一书中而为后人所知。芝诺提出这些悖论是为了支持他老师巴门尼德...
評分正如这本书的副标题所说的,How Randomness Rules Our Lives,书里主要阐述的是如何认识随机性对我们生活的影响。 各章节的笔记见:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19391977/ 作者从历史发展的角度讲述了人们一步步认识随机性,并由此建立了概率论和统计方法的过程。书中...
The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025