The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 概率統計 統計學 概率 statistics 思維 心理學 統計 數學
發表於2025-01-31
The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025
Not bad
評分關於概率統計的科普讀物。文字流暢,故事精彩。
評分這本書裏說的知識可能簡單瞭一點,但其例子和文筆都無比精彩,發人身省。
評分作者是牛人,書質量也很好。這本科普作品基本上就是幫助人們消除各種謬誤的,很多錶麵看上去理所當然的事其實完全不是那麼迴事,而一些錶麵看上去不正常的事反而存在較優的理解方法,關鍵是要對數據科學有正確的認識。本書的難度不高,沒有枯燥的數學公式,有的是大量的曆史故事和實際例子,所以作為入門級的課外讀物是極好的,我如果有孩子一定會讓他讀的。對瞭,最後一章是反對決定論的,雖然此書更多是將社會層麵的事,但正好和我最近關注的反基因決定論、反環境決定論和反基因-環境決定論相聯係,果然復雜(動態網絡)係統纔是最有苗頭的方嚮呀,哈哈哈。
評分無聊到令人發指,又看一遍,而且是不知道何處來的電子版
Leonard Mlodinow was born in Chicago, Illinois, received his PhD in theoretical physics from the University of California at Berkeley, and is the author of five best-sellers. His book The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives was a New York Times Bestseller, Editor's Choice, and Notable Book of the Year, and was short-listed for the Royal Society book award. His book Subliminal won the PEN/Wilson award for literary science writing. His other books include two co-authored with physicist Stephen Hawking -- A Briefer History of Time, and The Grand Design. In addition to his books and research articles, he has taught at Caltech, written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Forbes magazine, among other publications, and for television series such as McGyver and Star Trek: the Next Generation. www.leonardmlodinow.com
In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.
这本书还是几年前在大学里面看的,却一直记得很清楚,印象深刻。 作者用幽默的笔调从概率的角度,为我们分析了为什么有时候你努力了却还是不成功(0如果成功是-----)。 为什么呢?因为一件事情要发展到最后一步,即他的结果,是由许多因素影响的。往往我们只看到了我们可控...
評分所谓醉汉的脚步,是一个用来描述随机运动的数学术语。作者Leonard Mlodinow以此命名其书,是给读者一个直观冲击:生活中的很多事情,如同宿醉者的脚步一般难以预测。写作此书,也是为了在研究随机性的学术圈和普罗大众之间搭起一座桥梁,那些被学术精英们用来研究和理解醉汉的...
評分正如这本书的副标题所说的,How Randomness Rules Our Lives,书里主要阐述的是如何认识随机性对我们生活的影响。 各章节的笔记见:http://book.douban.com/annotation/19391977/ 作者从历史发展的角度讲述了人们一步步认识随机性,并由此建立了概率论和统计方法的过程。书中...
評分“心理学发现,就成功而言,面对困难毫不退缩的品质,至少与天分同等重要。” 十年规则:多数事情,要取得相当成功,至少需要十年的刻苦,实践和奋斗。勤奋、机遇、天分同等重要。 IBM 先驱,Thomas Watson:要想成功,就把你的失败速度加倍。 能力与成功直接并非等号,偶然性...
評分The Drunkard's Walk 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025