Fooled by Randomness

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.

出版者:Penguin
作者:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
出品人:
頁數:368
译者:
出版時間:2007-5
價格:USD 15.95
裝幀:Paperback
isbn號碼:9780141031484
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圖書標籤:
  • 統計學 
  • 英文原版 
  • 思維 
  • 英文原著 
  • 英文 
  • stochastics 
  • 心理學 
  • 思想 
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Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

具體描述

讀後感

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我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大,或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料,未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人,我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史(denigration of history):因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得,发生在别人身上的事情,不见得会发生...  

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这本书分成三部分: 第一部分是讲偏态,偶然事件。还谈了很多与概率相关的问题。 第二部分是讲存活着偏差,由于我们只看到了成功者,而因此形成了对机遇的歪曲看法。 第三部分是讲路径依赖的,人们过去做出的选择决定了他们现在及未来可能的选择。 三部分内容的划分是明确的,...  

評分

我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大,或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料,未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人,我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史(denigration of history):因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得,发生在别人身上的事情,不见得会发生...  

用戶評價

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幾乎沒有一章是廢話,閱讀還不枯燥。這是2014年讀過最好的書。它解釋股價是隨機性?那麼多的股神?為什麼有些人能預測等等。我真的喜歡這本書!

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最喜歡裏麵的小故事

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學數理統計的孩子錶示對這種吹水耍嘴皮子的書欣賞不能。。。。orz。。

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幾乎沒有一章是廢話,閱讀還不枯燥。這是2014年讀過最好的書。它解釋股價是隨機性?那麼多的股神?為什麼有些人能預測等等。我真的喜歡這本書!

评分

小概率事件隱含大趨勢

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