Fooled by Randomness 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 統計學 英文原版 思維 英文原著 英文 stochastics 心理學 思想
發表於2025-03-04
Fooled by Randomness 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025
最喜歡裏麵的小故事
評分小概率事件隱含大趨勢
評分幾乎沒有一章是廢話,閱讀還不枯燥。這是2014年讀過最好的書。它解釋股價是隨機性?那麼多的股神?為什麼有些人能預測等等。我真的喜歡這本書!
評分幾乎沒有一章是廢話,閱讀還不枯燥。這是2014年讀過最好的書。它解釋股價是隨機性?那麼多的股神?為什麼有些人能預測等等。我真的喜歡這本書!
評分小概率事件隱含大趨勢
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. The international bestseller Fooled by Randomness has been published in eighteen languages. Taleb lives (mostly) in New York.
Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.
我们不能因为眼前的享乐而狂妄自大,或者赞美稍纵即逝的幸福快乐。世事难料,未来变幻莫测。只有承蒙上苍垂帘从此能幸福以终的人,我们才能称之为幸福快乐。 P26 拒斥历史(denigration of history):因为赌徒、投资人、决策者总是觉得,发生在别人身上的事情,不见得会发生...
評分西方哲学史上被公认为第一位哲学家的希腊人泰勒斯,原本是一个商人,但是他却不好好挣钱,总是研究些没有用的事情。有一天,泰勒斯走在旷野间,抬头看着星空,结果不防脚下一个坑,掉进坑里摔个半死。于是希腊人笑话说,哲学家都是些没用的人。 泰勒斯很给哲...
評分这本书分成三部分: 第一部分是讲偏态,偶然事件。还谈了很多与概率相关的问题。 第二部分是讲存活着偏差,由于我们只看到了成功者,而因此形成了对机遇的歪曲看法。 第三部分是讲路径依赖的,人们过去做出的选择决定了他们现在及未来可能的选择。 三部分内容的划分是明确的,...
評分《随机致富的傻瓜》总体印象 这本书本来没有打算开始看的,不过周日去书店捧了一堆书回来路上老婆有点事情,我做在路边台阶上随手拿本书来翻看,当时又不能勾画东西,只好找本相对简单的,结果就拿到了这本。 这本书基本与致富无关,唯一引入这个词汇,只不过是因为作者是从事...
評分给四星是因为作者所推崇的“科学的可证伪性”,那一星的空白权当是尊重作者本意使之“科学化”了。还是Robert Shiller的金融市场课的参考书目。课听到一半倒是把书搜出来一口气一个通宵给看完了。颠覆啊!作者不相信投资组合那套,评价巴菲特的简朴作风“毫无必要”。这里探讨...
Fooled by Randomness 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025