The Theory That Would Not Die 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024

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Sharon Bertsch McGrayne 作者

Yale University Press

译者

2011-5-17 出版日期

336 页数

USD 27.50 价格

Hardcover

丛书系列

9780300169690 图书编码

The Theory That Would Not Die 在线电子书图书标签: 数学贝叶斯统计学概率历史思维统计 Bayesian

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发表于2024-05-20

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The Theory That Would Not Die 在线电子书 epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 下载 2024

The Theory That Would Not Die 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024

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这本书的作者不是数学家，因此有些问题讲得不是很透彻，我甚至怀疑某些地方存在错误。例如她说算后验概率时要进行迭代，即将算出来的结果作为先验概念再与likelyhood function相乘，Pirre Simon Laplace是这样做的，而Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial在2.1节的末尾明确说这是一种Boot-strip的方法，只能自欺欺人。

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拉普拉斯粉乱入试图分裂贝叶斯朋友圈，果然是人心可谓。

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读这本书的确有一个问题，那就是就算从头到尾一字不漏，没有统计学基础的读者仍不会明白贝叶斯统计学的数学原理，因为实际上作者只给出了最最基础的贝叶斯公式和最最简单的一些描述，其它的都是历史故事。但是在我看来，这本历史科普书打从一开始的目标恐怕就不是讲解数学，还是更多展现出一副在数学概率学统计学专业书中往往一笔带过的历史长卷。对于我，读这本书从另一个角度加深了专业理解并提高了一些兴趣，尤其在今天，相应的问题其实并没有得到彻底的解决，仍有很多讨论各学派优劣的书籍不断出版，包括科普和专业的。而我们又应该如何应对这些问题呢？如此曲折离奇的历史，如此大牛云集的领域，以此书为起点准备冲锋是极好的。不只是数学相关专业，心理学专业学生也可以读读此书。May the beyesian be with you！！！

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贝叶斯学派的人应该也不怎么喜欢这本书吧。

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The Theory That Would Not Die 在线电子书图书描述

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics.

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