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尼尔·弗格森，英国最著名的历史学家之一。哈佛大学历史系劳伦斯·A·蒂施教授、牛津大学耶稣学院高级研究员，同时也是斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的高级研究员。他是极少数能横跨学术界、金融界和媒体的专家之一。著有畅销书《帝国》、《虚拟的历史》、《顶级金融家》、《纸与铁》、《金钱关系》、《战争的悲悯》、《巨人》、《货币崛起》、《罗斯柴尔德家族》，同时还为多家报纸和杂志撰稿。此外，他还为第四频道撰写并制作了四部非常成功的电视纪录片：《美国巨人》、《世界战争》、《货币崛起》和《文明》。2004年被《时代》周刊评为“影响世界的100人”之一。

出版者:Basic Books

作者:Niall Ferguson

出品人:

页数:560

译者:

出版时间:2000-8-21

价格:USD 24.95

装帧:Paperback

isbn号码:9780465023233

丛书系列:

图书标签:

历史
弗格森
历史哲学
counterfactual
政治

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This meaty, scholarly collection of essays by gifted historian Niall Ferguson tackles the controversial topic of counterfactual questions: What if Hitler had invaded Britain in WWII? What if JFK had survived his assassination? What if there had been no Gorbachev to usher in the collapse of Communism? What if there had been no American Revolution? Ferguson points out that while questions such as these are a vital part of how we learn as individuals ("What if I had observed the speed limit, or refused that last drink?"), there remains a great deal of resistance--even hostility--to such musings among professional historians. "[I]n the dismissive phrase of E.H. Carr, 'counterfactual' history is a mere 'parlour game,' a 'red herring.'" E.P. Thompson is less charitable, calling counterfactual histories "'Geschichtswissenschlopff', unhistorical shit."

But Ferguson and his distinguished collaborators (many of whom are also Oxford fellows) lodge some convincing counterfactuals of their own to counter this arguably blinkered notion, this "idea that events are in some way preprogrammed, so that what was, had to be." In addition to the what-ifs above, Ferguson and his comrades tackle eight questions in all, including "What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War?", "What if Home Rule had been enacted [in Ireland] in 1912?", and "What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914?" Virtual History makes for a stimulating and intellectually rigorous trip, with Ferguson's own delightful afterword as the collection's crowning jewel, a brilliant--and often bitingly clever--timeline tying together all the threads from 1646 to 1996.

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关于反事实的研究，近年来的趋势是国内冷国外热。此书加上李泽厚的那场论战，在21世纪前十年，引发了国内对该问题的短暂关注。继此之后，国内学术界难觅反事实。与此相反，国外对这一领域的探索不断深入，并试图构建反事实假设的运行规则，我想这一定是多学科交叉的一次盛宴。 ...

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所谓“未曾发生的历史”。与之类似的种种思考，在史学上常常被称为“反事实问题”（Counterfactual）。虽然长久以来，传统的历史学家天经地义地认为他们所描述的历史应是那些必然已经发生过的事件，但这并不能阻止人们继续兴致勃勃地推演他们想象中的历史。　　其实，“反事...

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开头导言有78页，实际上导言完全是弗格森编著此书的全部立意所在，写得晦涩难懂，但对于全书而言又非常重要，可以讲完全是点晴之笔。全书导言加正文共10章，其中导言、第四章和后记为弗格森所写，其他章节分别由其他教授所写，售价偏…… “这本书是一道令人大快朵颐的学术大...

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我们都很熟悉“蝴蝶效应”：“一只南美洲亚马逊河流域热带雨林中的蝴蝶，偶尔扇动几下翅膀，可以在两周以后引起美国德克萨斯州的一场龙卷风。”，那么当这个世界各个角落的无数只蝴蝶扇动翅膀，这个世界将会发生什么？更进一步，如果把人类历史某一刻存在的每个人比喻成一只只...

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because I am not existing. funy I will read it if, only if I still alive. not virtual... on other hand, history, whatever I like or you hate, as your life that is unique, the one and only..........