Everything Is Obvious

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出版者:Crown Business
作者:Duncan J. Watts
出品人:
页数:352
译者:
出版时间:2011-3-29
价格:USD 26.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9780385531689
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 心理学
  • 社会科学
  • 社会学
  • 思维
  • 科普
  • 常识
  • 社交网络
  • 社科
  • 哲学
  • 思维
  • 认知
  • 常识
  • 洞察
  • 逻辑
  • 智慧
  • 清晰
  • 简单
  • 明显
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具体描述

Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

作者简介

Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.

目录信息

读后感

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生活中,我们有个词汇,叫“马后炮”,专指一些后见之明的、事后诸葛的家伙。 作为平凡老百姓,我们可以坦然面对这种缺陷,并且一笑了之。但如果说,在严谨的社会学研究界,也大量充斥着很多的马后炮,就不能不让人惊讶了,毕竟,这些家伙可是专业人士啊。 恰恰是专业人士...  

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“在听说发生森林火灾时,我们并不会去想点燃这场大火的火星有什么特别之处。这种想法确实比较可笑。但是,当看到社会中发生特别之事时,我们却会立刻这样想:无论是谁引发了此事,他一定不是普通人。” 01 — 英文版是2012年出的。一些案例和思想在其他读物中见过了。 作者在...  

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Correlation isn't causation. History run only once. Prediction is never predictable. Experts fail most of the time. Common sense in non-common.

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只看了首尾两章

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只看了首尾两章

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常识不是一成不变,与特定社会环境有很大关系。对于常识公平与否的判断也很受结果产出影响左右。公民投票观察可以靠民众意见预测,但重大专业意见还是听取一线人员意见更对。

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: B842.5/W349

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