Everything Is Obvious 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 心理學 社會科學 社會學 思維 科普 常識 社交網絡 社科
發表於2025-04-27
Everything Is Obvious 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025
可以給本科生課上閱讀,用來為the social sciences正名。
評分常識不是一成不變,與特定社會環境有很大關係。對於常識公平與否的判斷也很受結果産齣影響左右。公民投票觀察可以靠民眾意見預測,但重大專業意見還是聽取一綫人員意見更對。
評分以作者攤子鋪這麼大的寫法來說寫的實在太淺瞭,有點可惜。推薦給在校大學生及同等知識水平的年輕人翻閱。
評分"I knew it all along"的後見之明是最大的敵人。。。
評分: B842.5/W349
Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.
Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
上Twitter已有3年,至今仍然天天发tweets,我承认我是社交媒体爱好者,尤其是Twitter——简单又奇妙 ,一条tweet只有140字符,网状的扩散路径却能指数级地放大这微小的蝴蝶振翅。 沉迷于社交网络并不是个别现象,根据皮尤(Pew )2013年的调查,在美国,73%的成年人(18岁以上...
Everything Is Obvious 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025