Everything Is Obvious

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Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.

出版者:Crown Business
作者:Duncan J. Watts
出品人:
頁數:352
译者:
出版時間:2011-3-29
價格:USD 26.00
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9780385531689
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 心理學 
  • 社會科學 
  • 社會學 
  • 思維 
  • 科普 
  • 常識 
  • 社交網絡 
  • 社科 
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Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

具體描述

讀後感

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研究社会网络理论的人大概不会对Duncan Watts感到陌生。作者写这本书,我以为动机并不简单是为了说明常识多么容易犯错,也不仅是想鼓励如何用非常识(卡尼曼的二号系统)来审视社会问题。作者或是想以这本书修正当下社科研究的方法。 社会学从孔德到斯班塞到杜克海姆到帕尔森...  

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上Twitter已有3年,至今仍然天天发tweets,我承认我是社交媒体爱好者,尤其是Twitter——简单又奇妙 ,一条tweet只有140字符,网状的扩散路径却能指数级地放大这微小的蝴蝶振翅。 沉迷于社交网络并不是个别现象,根据皮尤(Pew )2013年的调查,在美国,73%的成年人(18岁以上...  

用戶評價

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看來社會科學僅僅是剛開始啊,混沌學真是讓人從科學角度最能體會到命運無常的瞭,接下來看失控!

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算是對我自己有啓發。作者以個人到群體到社會係統的層次分析瞭常識的錯誤,以及社會科學難做研究的原因。最直接的結果就是看過這本書的人對於幾乎所有分析“XXX為什麼成功”的文章都會持保留意見。

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Common Sense篇看完,其中核心點似乎在說明“常識”是人類理解世界的重要框架,但是常識在運用於解釋由大量社會成員的活動所造成的現象、事件時,具有很強的誤導性,這種誤導與人類對於簡單因果關係的嗜好,以及對微觀與宏觀的過渡過程不明有關。

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: B842.5/W349

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文中把各種學科的一堆東西揉在一起定義的“常識”恐怕對具體的學科指導性有限,但對於大眾讀者來說完全拋棄常識也不太可行。具體舉例的研究結論很廣泛,如果之前沒聽說過的話可以收獲一批雜學(。

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