Everything Is Obvious

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Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.

出版者:Crown Business
作者:Duncan J. Watts
出品人:
頁數:352
译者:
出版時間:2011-3-29
價格:USD 26.00
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9780385531689
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 心理學 
  • 社會科學 
  • 社會學 
  • 思維 
  • 科普 
  • 常識 
  • 社交網絡 
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Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

具體描述

讀後感

評分

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我们有过学问恐慌,有过知识焦虑,如果可以把知识和常识一刀两断的话,那可能还有过常识匮乏。我们的这种担心,来自于一种不足的状态,或者自认为不足的状态,所以出于本能我们会认为,消除或者消减这种担心的唯一办法就是获取、获取、再获取,只有我们学习了更多的知识,掌握...  

評分

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人们会根据自己已有的人生经历,总结出大量常识,有些常识,在物理、化学这样受环境影响可控的情况下,可以准确描述类似事件的结果,并且我们可以通过严格控制变量的反复实验验证其中某个因素对结果的影响。 比如:忽略空气阻力时的两个铁球同时落地 比如:抽真空后,羽毛和铁...  

用戶評價

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反常識社會科學。作者本身是社會網絡領域的大牛,因此各種案例用起來也是得心應手。不過我覺得最好看的還是時不時冒齣來的,其他學科和社會學傢自己對社會學的吐槽,又無奈又好笑。

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看來社會科學僅僅是剛開始啊,混沌學真是讓人從科學角度最能體會到命運無常的瞭,接下來看失控!

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Correlation isn't causation. History run only once. Prediction is never predictable. Experts fail most of the time. Common sense in non-common.

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算是對我自己有啓發。作者以個人到群體到社會係統的層次分析瞭常識的錯誤,以及社會科學難做研究的原因。最直接的結果就是看過這本書的人對於幾乎所有分析“XXX為什麼成功”的文章都會持保留意見。

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以作者攤子鋪這麼大的寫法來說寫的實在太淺瞭,有點可惜。推薦給在校大學生及同等知識水平的年輕人翻閱。

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