Thinking in Bets 在线电子书 图书标签: 决策 思维 心理学 英文原版 不确定性 认知精进 扑克 成长
发表于2024-05-18
Thinking in Bets 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024
audiobook, 挺有意思,最大收获就是不要根据outcome来评判decision的好坏,好多random error是不可知不可控的,random. 就是尽人事听天命喽
评分思想资源上溯到密尔的《论自由》,也综合了近年来行为经济学的研究成果。因为不确定,因为能力和运气交织影响结果,所以得用打牌下赌注的概率思维来考虑如何决策。既要从积极的结果倒推需要采取的步骤,也要预见到光明前途中的困难,做好应对准备。感觉跟中国谚语中的一些人生智慧不谋而合。
评分Mostly
评分Mostly
评分audiobook, 挺有意思,最大收获就是不要根据outcome来评判decision的好坏,好多random error是不可知不可控的,random. 就是尽人事听天命喽
Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
这本书里最欣赏的莫过于对resulting(第三页把案例形容为“成王败寇”)的批判——所谓尽人事听天命,结果好的就说明人事尽到位了吗?不巧的是,大部分人的思维模式都是这样的,以至于整个世界通行的思维模式也成了这样的。 之前我看两本讲双升的书(《纵横四海》和《双升高手...
评分由于具有不确定性(运气因素),生活更像是扑克而不是象棋,因此学习对赌思维十分必要。 对赌思维就是认识到决策的质量和运气在影响着我们的生活,因此我们要去学习分辨两者。普通人以结果为导向(把结果等同于决策质量),而高手关注系统。以结果为导向就会导致瞎JB更改决策系...
评分这本书里最欣赏的莫过于对resulting(第三页把案例形容为“成王败寇”)的批判——所谓尽人事听天命,结果好的就说明人事尽到位了吗?不巧的是,大部分人的思维模式都是这样的,以至于整个世界通行的思维模式也成了这样的。 之前我看两本讲双升的书(《纵横四海》和《双升高手...
评分读《对赌》:写给迷茫的年轻人 写在前面:第一次意识到“决策”可以是一项重要的事务,是在大二(或者大一)的时候想要参加一个学术比赛,指导老师王廷魁老师提到做“决策支持系统”,虽然这个比赛最终未能成型,但是在我的心里播下一个种子——“决策”在管理中是非常重要的部...
评分Thinking in Bets 在线电子书 pdf 下载 txt下载 epub 下载 mobi 下载 2024