Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025


Thinking in Bets

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Annie Duke 作者
Portfolio
譯者
2018-2-6 出版日期
256 頁數
USD 26.00 價格
Hardcover
叢書系列
9780735216358 圖書編碼

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 圖書標籤: 決策  思維  心理學  英文原版  不確定性  認知精進  撲剋  成長   


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發表於2025-03-27

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 下載 2025

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 epub 下載 pdf 下載 mobi 下載 txt 下載 2025

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 下載 2025



Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 用戶評價

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Think of choices as bets - to seek truth, rather than self-serving. Decision-examining group: CUDOS= communism, universalism, disinterestedness, organized skepticism. Avoid temporal-discount by imagining the future (10-10-10 rule)

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說的很有道理,而且也給瞭操作辦法,好書!

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Mostly

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Mostly

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有點虎頭蛇尾 key takeaways是不要resulting;意識到歸因到skill還是luck針對自己和彆人常常有不同

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 著者簡介

Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.


Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 著者簡介


Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 pdf 下載 txt下載 epub 下載 mobi 在線電子書下載

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 圖書描述

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 在線電子書下載


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Thinking in Bets 在線電子書 讀後感

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一看到“赌”这个词,会觉得是个偏负面的词,俗话说的好:十赌九输,赢也是运气好。然而从另一个角度看我们生活中做的每一个决策其实都是在“赌”。 本书从职业扑克选手角度详细分析了关于技巧和运气的区别。成王败寇的思想在我们的观念里根深蒂固,导致大家片面的以结果来判断...  

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这本书里最欣赏的莫过于对resulting(第三页把案例形容为“成王败寇”)的批判——所谓尽人事听天命,结果好的就说明人事尽到位了吗?不巧的是,大部分人的思维模式都是这样的,以至于整个世界通行的思维模式也成了这样的。 之前我看两本讲双升的书(《纵横四海》和《双升高手...  

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作者是认知心理学博士,有一个职业扑克玩家哥哥,机缘巧合专职玩德州扑克20年。 作者在玩牌过程中意识到,扑克比赛中的决策次数特别多特别频繁,差不多每两分钟要有一次决策,可能一个决策就影响到一套房子的输赢。于是对优秀扑克选手的决策模式做了许多思考。 书中总结了优秀...  

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